基于碳汇法与NPP法的安徽省能源足迹影响因素研究  

Study on influence factors of energy footprint in Anhui Province based on carbon sink and NPP methods

作　　者：熊鸿斌[1] 郑慧娟 XIONG Hongbin;ZHENG Huijuan(School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第2期254-260,共7页Journal of Hefei University of Technology：Natural Science

摘　　要：文章采用碳汇法和净初级生产力(net primary productivity,NPP)法,以安徽省为例计算能源足迹;将非化石能源消费也纳入能源足迹的计算中,以便更准确测度能源足迹;采用对数平均迪氏指数(logarithmic mean Divisia index,LMDI)分解法分析能源足迹的影响因素,并使用Pearson相关系数分析法探索非化石能源足迹对能源足迹总量变化率的影响。结果表明:与碳汇法相比,NPP法考虑区域综合碳吸收能力和土地利用变化的影响,计算结果更准确;基于NPP法计算含非化石能源的能源足迹,2009—2016年安徽省能源足迹累计增长511.25×10^(4)hm^(2),年均增长率为5.02%;能源强度在抑制能源足迹增长因素中占94.35%,贡献度为-1.57;经济发展在促进能源足迹增长的因素中占95.95%,贡献度为2.55;以经济发展为主的正效应大于以能源强度为主的负效应,两者比值为1.74∶1.00;非化石能源足迹、煤炭足迹的贡献度与总量变化率分别呈-0.54负相关和0.44正相关。因此,调整能源结构、大力发展非化石能源,能有效降低能源足迹。By using carbon sink and net primary productivity(NPP)methods,this paper calculates the energy footprint in Anhui Province,and includes non-fossil energy consumption in the calculation of energy footprint in order to measure the energy footprint more accurately.The logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI)is used to analyze the factors affecting the energy footprint.Pearson correlation coefficient analysis is adopted to explore the effect of non-fossil energy footprint on the total change rate of energy footprint.The results show that compared with the carbon sink method,the NPP method considers the influence of regional comprehensive carbon absorption capacity and land use changes,and the calculation results are more accurate.The energy footprint of Anhui Province including non-fossil energy footprint is calculated by NPP method,and it is shown that the energy footprint of Anhui Province increased by 511.25×10^(4)hm^(2)from 2009 to 2016,with an average annual growth rate of 5.02%.Energy intensity accounted for 94.35%of the factors that inhibited the growth of energy footprint,with a contribution of-1.57.Economic development accounted for 95.95%of the factors contributing to the growth of the energy footprint,with a contribution of 2.55.The positive effect dominated by economic development was greater than the negative effect dominated by energy intensity,the ratio of the two was 1.74∶1.00.The contribution of non-fossil energy footprint was negatively correlated with the total change rate of energy footprint,with a correlation coefficient of-0.54,and that of the coal footprint was positively correlated,with a correlation coefficient of 0.44.Therefore,adjusting the energy structure and developing non-fossil energy can effectively reduce the energy footprint.

关 键 词：净初级生产力(NPP) 碳汇法 非化石能源 能源足迹 碳达峰 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]