基于时序残差概率的风电场超短期风速混合预测模型  

Ultra-short-term Wind Speed Hybrid Forecasting Model for Wind Farms Based on Time Series Residual Probability Modeling

作　　者：戴剑丰 阎诚 汤奕[3] DAI Jianfeng;YAN Cheng;TANG Yi(College of Automation,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu Province,China;College of Artificial Intelligence,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu Province,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学自动化学院,江苏省南京市210023 [2]南京邮电大学人工智能学院,江苏省南京市210023 [3]东南大学电气工程学院,江苏省南京市210096

出　　处：《电网技术》2023年第2期688-697,共10页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51877037)。

摘　　要：风速的准确预测对提升风电功率预测精度和电网稳定运行具有重要意义,预测模型残差的精准刻画是实现风电场风速序列准确预测的前提,提出一种基于时序残差概率的风电场超短期风速混合预测模型。首先,基于改进变分模态分解方法将风速分解为频率特征互异的分量;然后,通过时间序列模型对分量中具有规律变化特征的线性成分构建确定性预测模型,对于拟合残差成分采用条件核密度估计建立概率预测模型,并基于二者时序递推叠加结果构成风速预测值。在此基础上,针对各残差分量条件概率无法直接表征原始预测结果的问题,提出了一种基于模拟法的概率生成方法,实现对风速的概率预测。最后,以我国东北某风电场运行数据为例,验证所提方法具有较高的预测精度,在保证可靠性的同时,具有极低的预测区间宽度,降低了概率预测不确定性。Accurate prediction of the wind speed is of great significance for improving the accuracy of wind power prediction and the stable operation of the power grid. The precise characterization of the prediction model residuals is a prerequisite to achieve accurate prediction of the wind speed series in the wind farm. This paper proposes an ultra-short-term wind speed hybrid forecasting model based on the probability of time series residuals. First, the wind speed is decomposed into components with different frequency characteristics based on the optimized variational modal decomposition. Then, a deterministic prediction model is constructed for the linear components with regular changes in the wind speed components through the time series model. For the fitting residual components, the conditional kernel density estimation is used to establish a probability forecasting model. Then based on the superposition of the recursive results of the two models the wind speed prediction value is formed. On this basis, in view of the problem that the residual conditional probability of each component cannot directly represent the original wind speed probability forecasting result, this paper proposes a probability generation based on the simulation to realize the wind speed probability forecasting. Finally, taking the operating data of a wind farm in Northeast China as an example, it is verified that the proposed method has high forecasting accuracy. While ensuring the reliability, the proposed method has a very low prediction interval width, which reduces the uncertainty of the probability forecasting.

关 键 词：风速预测 时间序列 条件核密度估计 残差 概率预测 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]