A Novel Approach to Measuring Spatiotemporal Changes in Social Vulnerability at the Local Level in Portugal  

作　　者：Pedro Pinto Santos JoséLuís Zêzere Susana Pereira Jorge Rocha Alexandre Oliveira Tavares 

机构地区：[1]Centre for Geographical Studies,Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning,TERRA,University of Lisbon(CEG-IGOT-ULisboa),1600-276 Lisboa,LA,Portugal [2]Centre for Social Studies,Earth Science Department,Science and Technology Faculty,University of Coimbra(CES/DCT-FCT-UCoimbra),3000-995 Coimbra,Portugal

出　　处：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》2022年第6期842-861,共20页国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：funded by FCT (Funda??o para a Ciência e Tecnologia/Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology),through the projects “Be Safe Slide-Landslide early warning soft technology prototype to improve community resilience and adaptation to environmental change”(PTDC/GES-AMB/30052/2017);“MIT-RSC-Multi-risk interactions towards resilient and sustainable cities”(MIT-EXPL/CS/0018/2019);Jorge Rocha was financed through FCT,within the framework of the project “TRIAD-Health risk and social vulnerability to arboviral diseases in mainland Portugal”(PTDC/GES-OUT/30210/2017);partially developed within the framework of the RISKCOAST project (Ref:SOE3/P4/E0868) funded by the Interreg SUDOE Program (3rd Call for proposals);Pedro Pinto Santos was fi nanced by FCT,within the framework of the contract CEEIND/00268/2017;by the Research Unit UID/GEO/00295/2020

摘　　要：Social vulnerability,as one of the risk components,partially explains the magnitude of the impacts observed after a disaster.In this study,a spatiotemporally comparable assessment of social vulnerability and its drivers was conducted in Portugal,at the civil parish level,for three census frames.The first challenging step consisted of the selection of meaningful and consistent variables over time.Data were normalized using the Adjusted Mazziotta-Pareto Index(AMPI)to obtain comparable adimensional-normalized values.A joint principal component analysis(PCA)was applied,resulting in a robust set of variables,interpretable from the point of view of their self-grouping around vulnerability drivers.A separate PCA for each census was also conducted,which proved to be useful in analyzing changes in the composition and type of drivers,although only the joint PCA allows the monitoring of spatiotemporal changes in social vulnerability scores and drivers from 1991 to 2011.A general improvement in social vulnerability was observed for Portugal.The two main drivers are the economic condition(PC1),and aging and depopulation(PC2).The remaining drivers highlighted are uprooting and internal mobility,and daily commuting.Census data proved their value in the territorial,social,and demographic characterization of the country,to support medium-and long-term disaster risk reduction measures.

关 键 词：AMPI normalization PORTUGAL Social vulnerability Spatiotemporal changes 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]