基于贝叶斯网络的干旱-森林火灾灾害链定量建模研究  

Quantitative modeling of drought-forest fire disaster chain based on the Bayesian network

作　　者：李思宇 梁达 韦燕芳 张翔 LI Siyu;LIANG Da;WEI Yanfang;ZHANG Xiang(School of Resource and Environmental Sciences,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China;School of Geodesy and Geomatics,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China;National Engineering Research Center of Geographic Information System,School of Geography and Information Engineering,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430078,China;State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying,Mapping and Remote Sensing,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,湖北武汉430079 [2]武汉大学测绘学院,湖北武汉430079 [3]中国地质大学(武汉)国家地理信息系统工程技术研究中心,中国地质大学(武汉)地理与信息工程学院,湖北武汉430078 [4]武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2023年第1期38-46,共9页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：嵩山实验室预研项目(YYYY062022001);湖北珞珈实验室开放基金项目(220100059);遥感科学国家重点实验室开放基金项目(OFSLRSS202114);武汉大学2020年省级大学生创新创业训练计划(S2020627009)。

摘　　要：为理解干旱-森林火灾灾害链的演化过程,以陕西省和湖北省为研究区域,分析了干旱发生条件及干旱气候因子与森林火灾之间的因果关系,构建了干旱-森林火灾灾害链的贝叶斯网络模型。通过对两省气候数据、干旱数据和林火数据的统计分析,获得了该网络结构上各个变量的条件概率,再根据贝叶斯网络推理的原理,计算了不同的变量取值下森林火灾的发生概率,并结合已知事实和Brier检验方法评价了该网络模型的准确性。实验结果表明,本文构建的干旱-森林火灾灾害链贝叶斯网络模型能够较为准确地预测森林火灾的发生,以定量化的手段初步揭示了干旱-森林火灾灾害链的演化过程。在此基础上可提出针对性的森林火灾防治措施,从而减少链式灾害带来的巨大损失。In order to understand the evolution process of the disaster chain constituted by drought and forest fire disasters,a Bayesian network model of drought-forest fire disaster chain was constructed by analyzing the drought occurrence conditions and the causality between drought climatic factors and forest fires in Shaanxi Province and Hubei Province as the study areas.Based on the statistical analysis of climate data,drought data and forest fire data of both provinces,the conditional probability of each variable in the network structure is obtained.Then,according to the principle of the Bayesian network,the forest fire probability under different variables is calculated,and the accuracy of the network model is evaluated by combining the known facts and the Brier test method.The experimental results show that the network model accurately predicts the occurrence of forest fires,and obtain the development process of drought-forest fire disaster chain.On this basis,the targeted forest fire prevention and control measures can be realized to reduce the tremendous losses by disaster chain.

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络 干旱 建模 火灾 灾害链 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护] S762.3[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X43