基于气象因子的长沙市日最大电力负荷预测对比研究  

Comparative study on the forecast of the maximum daily electric load in Changsha City based on meteorological factors

作　　者：廖春花 罗潇 谢睿恒 罗菁 朱明辉 谭诗琪 LIAO Chunhua;LUO Xiao;XIE Ruiheng;LUO Jing;ZHU Minghui;TAN Shiqi(Hunan Meteorological Service Center,Changsha 410118,China;Key Laboratory for Meteorological Prevention and Mitigation of Disasters in Hunan Province,Changsha 410118,China;Hunan Climate Center,Changsha 410118,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省气象服务中心,湖南长沙410118 [2]气象防灾减灾湖南省重点实验室,湖南长沙410118 [3]湖南省气候中心,湖南长沙410118

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2023年第1期183-190,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：湖南省气象局第三期业务能力建设项目(NLJS09,NLJS14)。

摘　　要：基于长沙市2018—2020年逐日日最大电力负荷和同期逐日气象要素数据,统计分析了日最大电力负荷的变化规律及节假日/周末效应。用趋势法分离出气象敏感负荷,并将气象敏感负荷与气象要素做相关性分析,最后用支持向量机方法和多元线性回归法对负荷进行模拟预测。结果表明:长沙市日最大电力负荷在一年内有2个峰值,分别出现在夏季和冬季,长沙市日最大电力负荷整体呈现增长趋势。日最大电力负荷的节假日/周末效应不明显。在春季和秋季,气象敏感负荷和气象因子的相关性较差,在夏季和冬季,温度是影响气象负荷最重要的气象因子。支持向量机方法对长沙市日最大电力负荷模拟效果较好,且加入综合气象指数使得模拟结果变好。Based on the maximum daily electric load of Changsha City from 2018 to 2020 and the daily meteorological data during the same period,variation pattern of the maximum daily electric load and the holiday/weekend effect on the maximum daily electric load are statistically analyzed.The trend method is used to isolate the weather sensitive load,and the correlation between the weather sensitive load and the meteorological elements is analyzed.The electric load is simulated and predicted by SVM method and the multiple linear regression method.The results show that there are two peaks in the maximum daily electric load of Changsha City in one year,which occur in summer and winter.The maximum daily electric load in Changsha shows an overall growth trend.The holiday/weekend effect of the maximum daily electric load is not obvious.In spring and autumn,the correlation between weather sensitive load and meteorological factors is relatively poor.In summer and winter,temperature is the most important meteorological factor affecting meteorological load.The SVM method has a better simulation effect on the maximum daily electric load of Changsha City,and the addition of comprehensive meteorological indexes makes the simulation result better.

关 键 词：日最大电力负荷 气象敏感负荷 气象因子 支持向量机 多元线性回归 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S165.25[农业科学—农业气象学]