中国痴呆症疾病负担研究及未来预测分析  

Trend study of disease burden of dementia in China and future prediction analysis

作　　者：熊屹立 于宝乙 刘声悦 薛巧娣 唐文君 葛晓燕 XIONG Yi-li;YU Bao-yi;LIU Sheng-yue;XUE Qiao-di;TANG Wen-jun;GE Xiao-yan(School of Stomatology,Jinzhou Medical University,Jinzhou,Liaoning 121001,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]锦州医科大学口腔医学院,辽宁锦州121001 [2]锦州医科大学公共卫生学院 [3]锦州医科大学第一临床医学院 [4]锦州医科大学公共卫生学院卫生统计学教研室,辽宁锦州121012

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2023年第3期402-407,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：2022年辽宁省教育厅高校基本科研项目面上项目(LJKMZ20221237);辽宁省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S202210160014)。

摘　　要：目的 分析1990—2019年我国痴呆症疾病负担变化趋势和现状,并对未来25年疾病负担进行预测,以期为痴呆症疾病的科学防控和延缓发生发展提供科学依据。方法 应用年龄-时期-队列模型(age-period-cohort,APC)分析年龄、时期和队列因素对痴呆症发病和死亡风险影响;应用Nordpred模型对未来25年疾病负担进行预测。结果 我国痴呆症整体疾病负担自1990年以来呈现上升趋势,女性高于男性。年龄-时期-队列模型分析显示,痴呆症发病率呈现低龄化趋势,在70~74岁组后明显上升。死亡风险在75~79岁组后明显上升。发病风险随时期变化单调上升,2015—2019年发病风险最高,死亡风险随时期变化近似“S”型,2005—2010年死亡风险最高。越晚出生的队列发病风险较高,死亡风险较低。Nordpred模型预测显示,在未来25年内,ASIR值将继续增加,ASMR值平稳下降,但每年新增发病和死亡人数将持续增加。结论 1990年以来我国痴呆症疾病负担居高不下,未来发病和死亡人数将持续上升,女性人群和老年人群疾病负担重,低龄人群发病风险急剧上升。Objective To analyze the trend and current situation of the disease burden of dementia in our country from 1990 to 2019 and to predict it in the next 25 years, so as to provide scientific evidences for prevention and control of dementia and delay its occurrence and development. Methods The age-period-cohort(APC) model was used to analyze the effects of age,period, and cohort factors on the risk of dementia incidence and mortality. The Nordpred model was used to predict disease burden over the next 25 years. Results The overall disease burden of dementia in our country showed an upward trend since 1990, and the trend of females was higher than that of males. Age-period-cohort model analysis showed that the incidence of dementia showed the trend of younger age and increased significantly after the age of 70 to 74 years old. The risk of death increased significantly after the age group of 75-79 years. The incidence risk increased monotonically over time, with the highest incidence risk in 2015 to 2019. The death risk was similar to “S” type with time, with the highest death risk in 2005 to 2010. The later the birth cohort, the higher the risk of disease and the lower the risk of death. Nordpred model predicts that ASIR will continue to increase and ASMR will decrease steadily in the next 25 years, but the number of new cases and deaths will continue to increase every year. Conclusion The disease burden of dementia in our country has remained high since 1990, and the number of morbidity and deaths will continue to rise in the future. The disease burden of female and the elderly is heavy, and the risk of the disease in the younger age group has risen sharply.

关 键 词：痴呆症 疾病负担 年龄-时期-队列模型 Nordpred模型 

分 类 号：R749.16[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]