面向“碳达峰、碳中和”的2035年中国生态环境技术预见研究——基于德尔菲调查  

Towards a Goal of ’Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality’:Research on Ecological and Environmental Technology Foresight Based on Delphi Survey in China 2035

作　　者：王孝炯 赵彦飞 张潮 WANG Xiaojiong;ZHAO Yanfei;ZHANG Chao(Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Military Science Information Research Center,PLA Military Science,Beijing 100142,China;School of Foreign Studies,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190 [2]军事科学院军事科学信息研究中心,北京100142 [3]首都经济贸易大学外国语学院,北京100070 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《科学学与科学技术管理》2022年第12期36-45,共10页Science of Science and Management of S.& T.

基　　金：中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院重大咨询项目(Y501131S06)。

摘　　要：“碳达峰、碳中和”已经上升成为我国未来发展的重要战略目标,2021年印发的《2030年前碳达峰行动方案》明确提出重点实施能源绿色低碳转型行动、循环经济助力降碳行动、碳汇能力巩固提升行动等“碳达峰十大行动”。由此可见,除能源技术领域以外,循环经济、碳汇等生态环境领域相关的低碳技术对实现“碳达峰、碳中和”也是至关重要。因此,面向2035年这一基本实现社会主义现代化的重要时点,遴选一批优先发展的生态环境技术课题,对于推动科技创新实现“碳达峰、碳中和”具有重要意义。基于2轮德尔菲调查的技术预见结果,应优先发展8项聚焦“碳达峰、碳中和”的生态环境技术课题,分别是:少水绿色低碳造纸技术,高精度全球变化数据产品,汇碳节水湿地恢复技术,超低排放控制技术,碳排放和减碳的影响评价及成本核算技术,全球碳、氮、水和能量循环与气候变化相互作用机理,二氧化碳捕集利用及封存技术,碳分离与能源化技术。德尔菲调查的结果显示,研发投入、法律法规政策和市场可行性是制约上述技术课题完成的主要因素。针对这些制约因素,从经费投入、制度建设、市场发展、国际合作等方面提出了相关建议。Besides the energy sector, low-carbon technologies in the ecological and environmental fields such as circular economy and carbon sinks are also essential for achieving "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality". The purpose of this study is to select a number of priority ecological and environmental technologies by adopting the technology foresight method for the strategic goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" in 2035. The year of 2035 is an important time point for the realization of socialist modernization. The purpose of this study is also to provide a foundation for decision-making on the future layout of science and technology and to provide grounds for related policy making in this field.This study mainly adopts the Delphi method to carry out a large-scale technology foresight research in China. The specific steps include focusing on the technological needs in the field of ecology and environment in 2035, identifying the initial future technological projects by collecting expert discussions, and finally selecting 125 most important future technological projects in the field of ecology and environment facing the year of 2035 by integrating the collective wisdom of experts through two rounds of large-scale Delphi questionnaires. Most of them are not related to the low carbon target, 8of them are related to the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" target, which is an important direction for all industries to focus on.Based on the technical foresight results of the two rounds of Delphi survey, eight ecological and environmental future technology projects should be developed as priorities, namely, green low-carbon paper technology with less water;high-precision global change data products;carbon and water-saving wetland restoration technology;ultra-low emission control technology;carbon emission and carbon reduction impact evaluation and costing technology;global carbon, nitrogen, water and energy cycles interacting with climate change mechanism;carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage technology;

关 键 词：技术预见 碳达峰 碳中和 生态环境 德尔菲调查 

分 类 号：F204[经济管理—国民经济] F406.3