数字治理背景下技术预见共识形成机制研究  

Research on Consensus Formation Mechanism of Technology Foresight Under the Background of Digital Governance

作　　者：简兆权[1] 邓凌云 李慧泉 JIAN Zhaoquan;DENG Lingyun;LI Huiquan(School of Business Administration,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou,510641,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学工商管理学院,广州510641

出　　处：《科学学与科学技术管理》2022年第12期46-56,共11页Science of Science and Management of S.& T.

基　　金：广东省软科学研究计划项目(2019A101002012)。

摘　　要：随着5G、大数据、云计算、人工智能等新一代数字技术的加速创新,数字技术日益融入经济社会各领域全过程,数字治理成为国家治理现代化的重要组成部分,对实现社会创新发展具有重要意义。技术预见作为国家科技治理的新型工具,在数字治理背景下应围绕大数据、人工智能和区块链等数字化技术加速数字化转型,不断提升我国科技治理的效能,推动国家治理现代化的进程。首先分析技术预见与共识形成的关系,共识的形成可以有效应对现代化科技风险,有助于推动技术预见结果的执行,从而解决“两难论”。然后从国内外实际的技术预见经验总结提出共识形成的三大影响因素——适当的议题定义,有效的协商结构,多重的参与动机。最后将大数据、人工智能、区块链等数字化技术的特性与共识形成机制全过程深度融合,从信息整合、协同合作和规则程序三大方面来探究数字治理背景下参与式技术预见共识形成的机制框架。With the accelerated innovation of new generation digital technologies such as 5G, big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence, digital technologies are increasingly integrated into the whole process of economic and social fields. Digital governance has become an important part of the modernization of national governance, which is of great significance to social innovation and development. Technology foresight is a new tool of national science and technology governance. It is a major social science and technology activity for each country to grasp the development trend of science and technology and identify major technology issues and future development trends. Under the background of globalization, various countries are under increasing pressure of economic competition and innovation in knowledge industry and service industry has become more important. Under this competitive pressure, government is playing an increasingly prominent role in the development of science and technology, so technology foresight is gradually rising in the world. However, as emerging technologies become important elements in social development, people’s understanding of future technological development begins to diverge. The increase of participants in technology foresight leads to the disunity of viewpoints on complex issues among subjects.In the context of digital governance, how to use big data, artificial intelligence and other digital technologies to coordinate the relationship between multi-agents representing different interests and promote the formation of consensus in their decision-making is of great significance for China’s technology foresight to achieve digital transformation.Firstly, the relationship between technology foresight and consensus formation is analyzed. Consensus formation can effectively deal with the risks of modern science and technology,which helps to promote the implementation of technology foresight results, so as to solve the "dilemma theory". Then, based on the practical experience of tech

关 键 词：数字治理 技术预见 共识形成 大数据技术 人工智能 

分 类 号：F204[经济管理—国民经济]