中国稀土消费结构现状与趋势分析  

Analysis of China’s Rare Earth Consumption Structure and Trend

作　　者：杨斌清 程婧 徐鹏伟 YANG Bin-qing;CHENG Jing;XU Peng-wei(School of Economics and Modern Finance,Gannan University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,China;School of Economics and Management,Jiangxi University of Science&Technology,Ganzhou 341000,China)

机构地区：[1]赣南科技学院经济与现代金融学院,江西赣州341000 [2]江西理工大学经济管理学院,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《稀土》2022年第5期150-158,共9页Chinese Rare Earths

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71241022)。

摘　　要：稀土元素应用不均衡的难题已经引起业界高度重视,为此,本文收集了1987—2018年稀土产品在冶金工业、石油化工、玻璃陶瓷、新材料、农轻纺等方面运用的时间序列数据,对稀土产品消费结构现状及稀土元素应用不均衡难题进行了分析,构建了稀土5个消费领域的ARIMA预测模型,对稀土5个消费领域在2020—2025年的消费量进行了预测。到2025年,中国稀土需求总量将达到15.66万吨,与2018年相比年复合增长率为6.3%,其中稀土新材料产品需求将继续保持上升的发展趋势,其消费占比由2018年的72.6%上升到79.43%,而稀土在农业、轻纺、冶金和机械等传统领域的消耗占比则有所下降,其占比为20.57%。根据稀土在各领域消费及元素消费预测结果,结合稀土产业现状,提出了促进稀土元素均衡应用的政策建议。The structural imbalance in the consumption of rare earth products has attracted great attention from the industry. For this reason, this article collected time series data of rare earth products used in metallurgical industry, petrochemical industry, glass ceramics, new materials, agriculture, textiles, etc. from 1987 to 2018. First, a statistical analysis was made on the status quo of rare earth products in the main consumption areas and structure, and then an ARIMA forecast model for 5 consumption areas was constructed, and the consumption demand for the next five years in 5 consumption areas was predicted and analyzed. It is estimated that by 2025, China’s total rare earth demand will reach 156,600 tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.3% compared with 2018. Among them, new rare earth material products will continue to maintain an upward development trend, and their consumption structure and consumption share in the domestic market continue to occupy an important position, accounting for 79.43% increased from 72.6% in 2018. Finally, policy recommendations to promote the optimization of rare earth consumption structure are put forward.

关 键 词：稀土元素 稀土消费 消费预测 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：F427[经济管理—产业经济]