无资料地区洪水预报参数估计  

Estimation of Flood Forecasting Parameter in Ungauged Area

作　　者：冯晓乐 王利书[1,2] 龙岩 康爱卿 FENG Xiao-le;WANG Li-shu;LONG Yan;KANG Ai-qing(School of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Water Conservancy,Handan 056038,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学水利水电学院,河北邯郸056038 [2]河北省智慧水利重点试验室,河北邯郸056038 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《海河水利》2023年第2期77-83,共7页Haihe Water Resources

摘　　要：以广州市流溪河流域内流溪河水库、黄龙带水库、和龙水库等9个水库子流域为研究对象,根据已知出库流量及库容曲线反推入库流量,基于三水源新安江模型进行洪水预报。假定芙蓉嶂水库为无资料地区,根据气象预报及其余8个子流域的流域特征值进行参数移植,建立流域特征值和敏感性参数的多元回归方程,对比分析距离相近法、面积相似法、参数平均法与多元回归法的参数移植结果,发现多元回归法移植效果较好,预报结果达到乙级精度。In this paper,9 reservoir sub-watersheds including Liuxihe Reservoir,Huanglongdai Reservoir,Helong Reservoir in Liuxihe River Basin of Guangzhou City are taken as the research objects.According to the known reservoir discharge and storage capacity curve,the inflow is reversely inferred,and the flood forecast is carried out based on the three-source Xin’anjiang model.It is assumed that Furongzhang Reservoir is an ungauged area.According to the weather forecast and the basin characteristic values of the remaining 8 sub-basins,the parameter transition is carried out,and the multiple regression equation of the basin characteristic value and the sensitivity parameter is established.The parameter transition results of the distance proximity method,the area similarity method,the parameter average method and the multiple regression method are compared and analyzed.It is found that the transition effect of multiple regression method is better,and the prediction result reaches Grade B accuracy.

关 键 词：新安江模型 粒子群算法 流域特征值 参数移植 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P338[天文地球—水文科学]