基于残差修正GM(1,1)模型的采空区残余变形预测研究  

Study on residual deformation prediction of goaf based on residual modified GM(1,1)model

作　　者：薛永安 冀哲[2] 张文志 XUE Yong'an;JI Zhe;ZHANG Wenzhi(School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454000,China;College of Mining Engineering,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China;Henan Engineering Research Center for Ecological Restoration and Construction Technology of Goaf Sites,Jiaozuo 454000,China)

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学测绘与国土信息工程学院,河南焦作454000 [2]太原理工大学矿业工程学院,山西太原030024 [3]河南省采空区场地生态修复与建设技术工程研究中心,河南焦作454000

出　　处：《煤矿安全》2023年第1期101-108,共8页Safety in Coal Mines

基　　金：国家自然科学基金山西煤基低碳联合基金重点资助项目(U1810203);河南省科技攻关资助项目(212102310404);教育部产学合作协同育人资助项目(202102245009)。

摘　　要：针对灰色GM(1,1)模型直接应用于采空区地表残余变形预测效果一般的问题,以灰色GM(1,1)模型为基础,以一元二次多项式对GM(1,1)模型预测结果进行正化残差拟合修正,构建残差修正GM(1,1)模型,并以等间距和非等间距2种形式的采空区地表残余沉降监测数据集进行实例验证。结果表明:残差正值化处理后的非线性多项式拟合修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度增益明显,而未对残差进行正值化处理的多项式残差修正GM(1,1)模型预测精度提升效果一般,正化残差拟合修正是有效的GM(1,1)模型后处理改进方式。In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the GM(1,1)model for its application in residual deformation prediction of goaf, the residual modification GM(1,1)model was constructed based on the gray GM(1,1)model. The positive residual fitting correction of GM(1,1) model prediction results was carried out with unary quadratic polynomial. The monitoring data sets of surface residual settlement in goaf with equal and non-equal spacing were used for example verification. The results show that: the prediction accuracy of GM(1,1) model modified by nonlinear polynomial fitting after residual correction is improved obviously.However, GM(1,1) model modified by polynomial fitting of original residual error has no obvious improvement effect on prediction accuracy. Residual positive fitting correction is an effective post-processing improvement method for GM(1,1) model.

关 键 词：残余变形 GM(1 1)模型 变形预测 牛顿插值 残差修正 

分 类 号：TD325.2[矿业工程—矿井建设]