考虑严重程度的城市道路交叉口事故密度空间分布  

Spatial distribution of traffic accident density at urban road intersection considering severity

作　　者：张文会[1] 王美娜 强添纲[1] ZHANG Wenhui;WANG Meina;QIANG Tiangang(School of Traffic and Transportation,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150040,China;China Design Group Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210014,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学交通学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040 [2]华设设计集团股份有限公司,江苏南京210014

出　　处：《江苏大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第2期133-141,共9页Journal of Jiangsu University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0803901);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2572021DT09);黑龙江省重点研发计划项目(JD22A014)。

摘　　要：为探究城市道路交叉口交通事故的空间分布特征,找出影响事故严重程度的关键因素,基于哈尔滨市城市道路交通事故数据库,获得有效交叉口事故样本1758起,并提取9类事故特征.采用密度分析方法,分别获得考虑路网密度、交叉口密度、严重程度的事故密度空间分布特征,并将其可视化显示.将事故严重程度分为死亡事故和非死亡事故2类,选择事故严重程度预测效果最好的随机森林算法分别对整个城市区域、低密度区域和中高密度区域影响交叉口事故严重程度的因素排序.结果表明:考虑路网密度、交叉口密度和事故严重程度时,交叉口事故空间分布呈现一定的差异性;对于整个城市区域、低密度区域和中高密度区域,季节和天气情况均为事故严重程度的主要影响因素,交叉口类型、事故形态和时段分别为3类区域的主要影响因素.To explore the spatial distribution patterns of traffic accidents at urban road intersections and find out the key factors affecting the severity of accidents,1758 valid intersection accident samples and 9 categories features were extracted from the traffic accident database of Harbin.The spatial distribution of intersection accidents was visualized,and the density analysis algorithm was used to obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of intersection accidents considering the road network density,intersection density and severity respectively.The accident severity was divided into fatal accidents and non-fatal accidents.The random forest was used to rank the significant factors affecting the accident severity in the whole urban area,low density area and medium-high density area.The results show that the spatial distribution of intersection accidents differs considering road network density,intersection density and severity respectively.Season and weather are the significant factors for the whole urban,low density and medium-high density area,while intersection type,accident type and time of day are the respectively significant factors for the three types of areas.

关 键 词：交通事故 交叉口 空间分布 随机森林 路网密度 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]