深圳市成年血液肿瘤患者死亡情况分析及预测  

Death and prediction analysis of adult hematological malignancies in Shenzhen

作　　者：文冰冰 付英斌[2] 梅树江[2] 刘刚[2] 杜新[1] Wen Bingbing;Fu Yingbin;Mei Shujiang;Liu Gang;Du Xin(Department of Hematology,the Second People's Hospital of Shenzhen,Shenzhen 518035,China;Department of Management,Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenzhen 518073,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳市第二人民医院血液内科,深圳518035 [2]深圳市疾病预防控制中心业务管理科,深圳518073

出　　处：《白血病．淋巴瘤》2022年第12期716-721,共6页Journal of Leukemia & Lymphoma

基　　金：深圳市医学重点学科(SZXK008)。

摘　　要：目的探讨2017年至2020年深圳市常住居民成年人血液肿瘤的死亡特征、趋势分析及预测。方法2017年至2020年深圳市常住居民血液肿瘤死亡监测数据来自深圳市死因监测系统,人口资料情况来源于深圳市疾病预防控制中心。采用2020年第七次全国人口普查数据作为标准人口数据,使用Joinpoint软件计算粗死亡率(CMR)、标准化率(SMR)和死亡率年度变化百分比(APC)等。构建灰色模型GM(1,1)预测2021年至2025年深圳市成年人血液肿瘤死亡率。结果2017年至2020年深圳市男性血液肿瘤CMR为1.15/10万~1.85/10万,SMR为2.24/10万~2.44/10万;女性血液肿瘤CMR为0.81/10万~1.75/10万,SMR为1.67/10万~1.90/10万;男性、女性血液肿瘤年CMR、SMR比较均差异无统计学意义(均P>0.05)。CMR和SMR的年度变化趋势均不明显,男性CMR APC为27.28%,女性CMR APC为12.70%;男性SMR APC为1.12%,女性SMR APC为4.77%,APC均差异无统计学意义(χ^(2)=0.01,P=0.939;χ^(2)=0.91,P=0.318)。血液肿瘤死因顺位依次为急性髓系白血病(AML)、淋巴瘤、多发性骨髓瘤、急性淋巴细胞白血病(ALL)、骨髓增生异常综合征(MDS)+慢性粒单核细胞白血病(CMML)、慢性淋巴细胞白血病(CLL)+慢性粒细胞白血病(CML)。18~40岁血液肿瘤患者CMR较低,40岁以上CMR开始增高,尤其在≥60岁组迅速上升,且在≥80岁组达到高峰。各类型血液肿瘤起病至死亡中位时间最短为AML组(8个月,范围0.1~168个月),最长为CLL+CML组(24个月,范围0.1~300个月)。各类型血液肿瘤死亡直接原因最多为感染,其次为单器官衰竭。GM(1,1)模型预测效果好,2021年至2025年总标化死亡率分别为4.52/10万、4.76/10万、5.01/10万,5.28/10万和5.57/10万,呈上升趋势。结论深圳市40岁以上居民血液肿瘤发生率升高,GM(1,1)灰色模型预测深圳市成年人血液肿瘤死亡率呈持续上升趋势。Objective To investigate the characteristics of death,tendency and the prediction of Shenzhen residents with adult hematological malignancies from 2017 to 2020.Methods The surveillance data of hematological malignancies from 2017 to 2020 and the demographic data in Shenzhen were collected from Shenzhen death cause monitoring system and Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention,respectively.The data of the 7th national demographic data in 2020 were set as the standardized population data.Crude mortality rate(CMR),standardized mortality rate(SMR)and annual percentage change(APC)of mortality were calculated by using Joinpoint software.The grey model GM(1,1)was built to predict the mortality of adult hematological malignancies in Shenzhen between 2021 and 2025.Results From 2017 to 2022,the male CMR of hematological malignancies was 1.15/100000 to 1.85/100000,and the SMR was 2.24/100000 to 2.44/100000;the female CMR of hematological malignancies was 0.81/100000 to 1.75/100000,and the SMR was 1.67/100000 to 1.90/100000.There were no statistically significant differences in the annual CMR and SMR between male and female hematological malignancies(all P>0.05),and the annual change trend of CMR and SMR was not significant.The APC of male and female CMR was 27.28%and 12.70%,respectively(χ^(2)=0.01,P=0.939);the APC of male and female SMR was 1.12%and 4.77%,respectively(χ^(2)=0.91,P=0.318).The death causes of hematological malignancies were successively acute myeloid leukemia(AML),lymphoma,multiple myeloma,acute lymphoblastic leukemia(ALL),myelodysplastic syndrome(MDS)plus chronic myelomonocytic leukemia(CMML),chronic lymphoblastic leukemia(CLL)plus chronic myelogenous leukemia(CML).The CMR of patients with hematological malignancies aged 18-40 years was low,the CMR began to rise in patients above 40 years,especially the rapid increase at the age of 60 years,reaching the peak at the age of 80 years or above.The shortest median time of all kinds of hematological malignancies from the onset of disease to the death w

关 键 词：血液肿瘤 死亡原因 死亡率 灰色模型GM(1 1) 

分 类 号：R733[医药卫生—肿瘤]