我国卫生管理人员人力资源现状及预测分析  

Analysis on the Current Situation and Prediction of Human Resources of Health Management Personnel in China

作　　者：曲歌 王健 高天 韩金铭[1,2] 刘晋阳 邢贤晋 张瑜洁 曹硕 QU Ge(Centre for Health Management and Policy Research,School of Public Health,Cheeloo College of Medicine,Shandong University,Jinan,Shandong,250012,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院,卫生管理与政策研究中心,山东济南250012 [2]国家卫生健康委员会卫生经济与政策研究重点实验室(山东大学),山东济南250012 [3]济南市中心医院,山东济南250012

出　　处：《医学与社会》2023年第2期14-18,23,共6页Medicine and Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目,编号为71273156;山东省卫生健康委资助项目,编号为SK200339;山东大学齐鲁医学院本科教改项目,编号为qlyxjy-202126。

摘　　要：目的:分析我国卫生管理人员年龄、学历、职称结构及分布情况,预测2021-2025年我国卫生管理人员总数,为卫生管理人力资源配置和人才队伍建设提供借鉴与参考。方法:采用构成比描述卫生管理人员人力资源发展现状,定基比和环比增长率描述其增长情况,运用GM(1,1)模型预测我国2021-2025年卫生管理人员总量。结果:卫生管理人员学历、职称总体偏低,存在管理人员队伍梯队配置不合理、地区发展不均衡的现象。经预测,2021-2025年我国卫生管理人员总数分别为58.45万、60.60万、62.83万、65.14万、67.54万人。结论:卫生管理人员占比总体呈降低趋势,亟需提高卫生管理人员队伍建设的重视程度,借鉴国际经验,改革人才培养模式,完善职称晋升机制,保证人力资源配置公平,以期实现卫生管理人员高质量发展。Objective: To analyze the age, educational background, professional title and distribution of health management personnel in China, to predict the number of health management personal during 2021-2025, so as to provide references for health management personal resources allocation and the construction of health management personnel. Methods: The composition ratio was used to describe the current development of human resource of health management personnel, and fixed base ratio and ringgit growth rate were used to describe their growth, and GM(1,1) model was applied to predict the number of health management personnel in China from 2021 to 2025. Results: The structure of educational background and professional title of health management personnel was generally low, and there were some problems such as unreasonable configuration of management team echelon and unbalanced regional development. It’s predicted that the total number of health management personnel in China from 2021 to 2025 will be 584500, 606000, 628300, 651400 and 675400 respectively. Conclusion: The proportion of health management personnel is generally decreasing. It is urgent to pay more attention to the construction of health management personnel, learn from international experience, reform personnel training mode, improve the promotion mechanism of professional title, and ensure the fair allocation of human resources, so as to realize the high-quality development of health management personnel.

关 键 词：卫生人力资源 资源配置 管理人员 预测 

分 类 号：R197.2[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]