基于Maxent和ArcGIS的赤皮青冈在中国的潜在适生区预测  

Prediction of the potential distribution of Cyclobalanopsis gilva in China based on the Maxent and ArcGIS model

作　　者：欧阳泽怡 李志辉[1] 欧阳硕龙[3] 程勇[3] 周志春[4] 吴际友[3] OUYANG Zeyi;LI Zhihui;OUYANG Shuolong;CHENG Yong;ZHOU Zhichun;WU Jiyou(College of Forestry,Central South University of Forestry&Technology,Changsha 410004,Hunan,China;Hunan Botanical Garden,Changsha 410116,Hunan,China;Hunan Academy of Forestry,Changsha 410004,Hunan,China;Research Institute of Subtropical Forestry,CAF,Fuyang 311400,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学林学院,湖南长沙410004 [2]湖南省植物园,湖南长沙410116 [3]湖南省林业科学院,湖南长沙410004 [4]中国林业科学研究院亚热带林业研究所,浙江富阳311400

出　　处：《中南林业科技大学学报》2023年第2期19-26,共8页Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD21B03);湖南省自然科学基金青年基金项目(2021JJ41069);湖南省林业科技攻关项目“珍贵用材树种良种选育及栽培技术研究与示范”(XLK201706)。

摘　　要：【目的】赤皮青冈是我国珍贵用材树种,大尺度预测和模拟赤皮青冈当前潜在分布区,并评估其适生范围,对赤皮青冈在中国未来不同时期的适生区进行模拟,得到未来不同气候情境下的适生区分布及其动态变化预测,为赤皮青冈的中长期造林规划提供指导。【方法】基于赤皮青冈的81条分布信息和7个环境因子,在MaxEnt模型基础上,使用R语言对其进行优化,同时利用ArcGIS软件对影响赤皮青冈分布的环境因子进行分析,探究影响赤皮青冈自然分布的主要环境因子,并预测赤皮青冈在中国不同时期下的适生区分布范围与面积。【结果】1)赤皮青冈当前适生区模型的平均AUC值为0.89,模型预测结果良好;2)赤皮青冈的适生区主要受最干月降水量、年平均降水量、温度年较差以及最冷季度平均温度影响;3)当前时期赤皮青冈的潜在适生区主要分布于我国贵州、四川、湖南、江西和台湾地区等地,其中高适生区占比最高的是湖南省;4)在未来2个时期4种升温情境下,赤皮青冈的分布区面积均有不同程度的扩增,且整体有向高纬度地区迁移的趋势。【结论】赤皮青冈的分布主要受水热条件所影响,尤其对水分要求较高;其当前及未来时期在我国的适生区面积均较高。可尽量在模型预测的中高适生区内开展赤皮青冈人工林扩繁工作,以提升造林效率,获得更好的生态及经济效益。【Objective】As a precious timber tree species in China,the current and future potentially suitable area for Cyclobalanopsis gilva was predicted,in order to provide guidelines for the medium and long-term afforestation of C.gilva.【Method】Based on 81 distribution information and 7 environmental factors,R language was used to optimize the MaxEnt model.Meanwhile,ArcGIS software was used to analyze the environmental factors affecting the distribution of C.gilva,and the main environmental factors affecting the natural distribution of C.gilva were explored.In addition,the distribution of C.gilva and its suitable areas in China in different periods were predicted.【Result】The result showed that the average AUC value of the current suitable area model for C.gilva was 0.89,which indicated that the results of the model were good.The distribution of C.gilva was mainly influenced by environmental factors,i.e.precipitation in the driest month,annual precipitation,annual temperature range and mean temperature of the coldest quarter.In China,the suitable areas for C.gilva were mainly distributed in Guizhou,Sichuan,Hunan,Taiwan and so on.The potentially suitable areas for C.gilva would be increased in 2021-2040 and 2041-2060,according to four different climate models.【Conclusion】The distribution of C.gilva is mainly influenced by water and temperature factors,and its suitable areas in China are large in the current and future periods.Hence,increasing the planting rate of C.gilva in highly suitable areas is important for the improvement of afforestation efficiency and ecological and economic benefits.

关 键 词：赤皮青冈 MaxEnt模型 适生区预测 

分 类 号：S771.8[农业科学—森林工程]