基于预测惩罚和联盟嫉妒的分布式能源合作博弈模型  

Cooperative game model in distributed power plants based on prediction penalty and alliance envy

作　　者：代业明[1] 齐尧 孙锡连 DAI Yeming;QI Yao;SUN Xilian(School of Business,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266071,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学商学院,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2023年第2期174-182,共9页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71571108);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助项目(20YJA630009);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2016M602104)。

摘　　要：本研究提出一种基于分布式能源电厂的盈缺电量与运输成本进行联盟的合作博弈模型,探讨分布式能源在合作下的效用最大化问题。通过该模型减少因分布式能源预测发电量与实际发电量差值问题产生的惩罚,同时考虑联盟间的嫉妒因素精确每个分布式能源电厂效用,最后依据Shapley值法为各分布式电厂分配效用。数值结果表明,发电厂之间的合作不仅可以降低分布式能源发电量不确定性带来的惩罚,同时可以减少联盟间嫉妒带来的损失。In recent years,with the rise of the electricity industry and the increase of users′demand for electricity,the traditional power system no longer meets the users′demand for electricity consumption.While smart grid can handle the electricity demand of all parties well,facilitate the balance between supply and demand,and make the allocation of power resources more reasonable and efficient.As one essential research subject in smart grid,balancing power allotment based on demand response,has aroused a wide concern among scholars.In their studies,various new energy generation methods have been put forward to balance power allotment.Especially,the popularity of renewable energy generation system not only effectively reduces pollutant emissions,but also changes the traditional cooperation mode of power supply and demand,so as to provide many possibilities of improving the utility of power grid.Therefore,while studying the power generation of distributed power plants,this paper designs a penalty mechanism to reduce power loss or additional power generation costs by calculating the difference between the predicted electricity and the actual generated electricity of distributed power plants.In the designed penalty mechanism,the distributed power plants can exchange surplus electricity through cooperation to reduce penalties.At the same time,the alliance envy factor which is generated by the cooperation of distributed power plants is considered as well.Specially,the penalty mechanism proposed in this paper divides the power delivery into two stages,and calculates the difference between the predicted electricity and the actual generated electricity of distributed power plants for the implementation of penalty mechanism.The first stage is the preparation stage,when distributed power plants forecast the power generation within a certain period in the future according to their respective historical power generation data,and then the market operator collects the predicted power generation information and announces it to the

关 键 词：实时定价 预测惩罚 分布式能源 联盟嫉妒 合作博弈 

分 类 号：F273[经济管理—企业管理]