基于GM(1,1)模型的新能源汽车销量预测研究  

Research on Sales Forecast of New Energy Vehicles Based on GM(1,1) Model

作　　者：朱曼宇 张峥[1] ZHU Man-yu;ZHANG Zheng(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2023年第2期138-141,共4页Logistics Engineering and Management

摘　　要：交通运输是碳排放的重点行业,因而新能源汽车的推广使用是减少碳排放、实现国家“双碳”目标的重要举措。近年来,政府已出台各项新能源汽车补贴政策,持续推动新能源汽车产业的发展。研究基于GM(1,1)模型,根据2012-2021年中国新能源汽车年销量数据,对未来五年新能源汽车销量进行预测。研究发现,新能源汽车产业已逐渐迈入快速发展阶段,销量增长速度呈现逐年加快的趋势。针对当前新能源汽车发展迅速的现状进行原因分析,并在补贴退坡政策影响下为新能源汽车产业的未来发展提供参考建议。As transportation is a key industry for carbon emissions, the promotion and use of new energy vehicles is an important measure to reduce carbon emissions and achieve the national carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.In recent years, the government has introduced various new energy vehicle subsidy policies, which continue to promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry.The research is based on the GM(1,1)model and forecasts the sales of new energy vehicles in the next five years according to the annual sales data of new energy vehicles in China from 2012 to 2021.The study found that the new energy vehicle industry has gradually entered a stage of rapid development, and the sales growth rate has shown a trend of accelerating year by year.This paper analyzes the reasons for the current rapid development of new energy vehicles, and provides a reference and suggestions for the future development of the new energy vehicle industry under the influence of the recession policy.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 新能源汽车 销量预测 

分 类 号：F224.9[经济管理—国民经济]