新冠疫情防控措施对入室盗窃犯罪热点的影响——基于北京市主城区的案例研究  

The impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on residential burglary hotspots:A case study of the core urban areas of Beijing

作　　者：张新宇 陈鹏[1] ZHANG Xinyu;CHEN Peng(School for Informatics Cyber Security,People's Public Security University of China,Beijing 102600,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学信息网络安全学院,北京102600

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2023年第2期328-340,共13页Progress in Geography

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(20YJAZH009);中央高校基本科研业务费专项(2020JKF501)。

摘　　要：为了分析新冠疫情防控措施对入室盗窃犯罪热点带来的影响,论文收集了北京市2020年重大突发公共卫生事件一级响应期间和2019年同一时期的入室盗窃案件数据,利用核密度分析、PAI(predictive accuracy index)指数等方法比较了疫情防控前后犯罪热点的变化,从路网密度、POI多样性等环境特征以及发案地点、重复作案等角度对发生明显变化的犯罪热点的环境特征和案件特征进行了分析,讨论了疫情防控措施对犯罪热点带来的影响。结果表明:(1)疫情发生后,北京市主城区内的入室盗窃类案件数量大幅下降,2020年一级响应期间的日均发案量较2019年同一时期降幅达66.8%;(2)2019年出现的8个主要犯罪热点在2020年疫情防控期间呈现出明显衰减现象,其中5个热点基本消失,3个热点有所减弱;(3)出现衰减的热点普遍具有交通便利性好、要素多样性高、发案地点集中、犯罪人重复作案明显等特点;(4)疫情防控期间实施的居家隔离和社交限制等措施对犯罪人的作案机会形成压缩、公共场所的实名查验对犯罪人的匿名性形成削弱是疫情期间犯罪数量下降和热点效应衰减的主要原因。研究结果对疫情防控期间的犯罪预防和警力资源优化具有一定的意义。In order to analyze the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on the hotspots of residential burglary,the data of crimes that occurred during the First Level Response period of Major Public Health Emergencies in Beijing in 2020 and the same period in 2019 were collected,and the changes of hotspots during the two periods were compared by using kernel density estimation and predictive accuracy index.Consequently,the environmental features such as street network,point of interest(POI)diversity,crime locations,and repeat victimization in significantly varied hotspot areas were investigated.The results show that:(1)After the outbreak of the pandemic,the occurrence of residential burglary in the core urban areas of Beijing dropped significantly,and daily occurrence of crimes during the First Level Response period in 2020 decreased by 66.8%compared with the same days in 2019.(2)The eight major hotspots that existed in 2019 apparently declined during the corresponding days in 2020,five of them basically disappeared,and three hotspots weakened.(3)The declined hotspots were generally clustered around traffic hubs,areas with high diversity of POIs,clustered crimes,and repeat victimizations.(4)Home isolation and social restriction strategies implemented during the First Level Response period reduced the opportunities of offenders,and the real-name inspection adopted in public places increased the exposure risk of offenders,which are the main reasons for the hotspots decline during the pandemic.This work has some implications for crime prevention and police resources optimization during the pandemic.

关 键 词：新冠疫情 防控措施 入室盗窃 犯罪热点 日常活动理论 理性选择理论 北京市 

分 类 号：D924.35[政治法律—刑法学] D917.3[政治法律—法学]