2030年京津冀及周边城市群PM_(2.5)污染控制路径  

PM_(2.5)Pollution Control Pathways in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Urban Areas in 2030

作　　者：束韫[1] 李海生 张文杰[1] 王洪昌[1] 田刚[1] 朱金伟[1] 于瑞 杨添棋 龙红艳[1] SHU Yun;LI Haisheng;ZHANG Wenjie;WANG Hongchang;TIAN Gang;ZHU Jinwei;YU Rui;YANG Tianqi;LONG Hongyan(State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院,环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京100012

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2023年第3期439-448,共10页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(No.2017YFC0213000);大气重污染成因与治理攻关项目(No.DQGG0107,DQGG0209)。

摘　　要：近年来,我国大气污染物减排效果明显,空气质量也随之大幅改善.然而,部分重点区域如京津冀及周边城市群(“2+26”城市)PM_(2.5)年均浓度依然较高,远超GB 3095—2012《环境空气质量标准》二级标准限值(35μg/m^(3)).为实现该目标值,利用京津冀温室气体-空气污染物协同控制综合评估模型(greenhouse gas-air pollution interactions and synergies,GAINS-JJJ),模拟预测了2030年不同政策情景下区域空气质量改善情况,分别量化了结构调整与末端控制(BAT)政策对不同污染物减排的贡献,为“2+26”城市制定空气质量改善路径提供参考.结果表明:(1)2017—2030年,由于一系列结构调整政策,如煤改清洁能源、淘汰落后产能(如钢铁、水泥、焦化等)、氮肥减量施用和高挥发有机溶剂替代等措施的实施,以及末端控制政策,如钢铁、水泥与焦化等行业超低排放改造,重型柴油车与非道路移动机械尾气排放标准升级,标准化规模养殖与测土配方施肥技术等技术的推广,“2+26”城市的PM_(2.5)年均浓度值达到34μg/m^(3),实现了“美丽中国”的目标要求.(2)2030年结构调整情景下,一次PM_(2.5)、SO_(2)、NO_(x)、NH_(3)与NMVOCs(非甲烷类挥发性有机物)的排放相比2017年分别下降了31%、44%、31%、5%和11%;结构调整+末端控制情景下,各项污染物的排放量减排比例分别达到75%、69%、77%、32%与52%.(3)末端控制政策对一次PM_(2.5)、NO_(x)、NH_(3)和NMVOCs减排的贡献要大于结构调整政策的贡献;而针对SO_(2)的减排,结构调整政策则发挥了较大的作用.研究显示,在2030年之前,“2+26”城市的末端控制政策仍具有较大的污染减排潜力,而针对SO_(2)的控制则应将重点从过去的末端减排转向前端的结构性调整措施上.In recent years,air pollutant emissions in China have reduced significantly,and the air quality has improved.However,annual average PM_(2.5)concentrations in some key regions such as the’2+26’Cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas are still relatively high,far exceeding the national standardⅡfor ambient air quality of 35μg/m^(3).To attain the target,the greenhouse gas and air pollution interactions and synergies model adapted to the’2+26’Cities(GAINS-JJJ)model was applied to simulate and predict regional air quality under different policy scenarios in 2030,and contributions of structural adjustments and end-of-pipe controls(BAT)policies to the emission reduction.The results showed that:(1)Due to the structural adjustment policies,such as’coal to clean energy’,elimination of outdated production capacity(such as steel,cement,coking,etc.),reduction of nitrogen fertilizer application and substitution of high volatile organic solvents,and the end-of-pipe control policies,such as ultra-low emission standard transformation of steel,cement and coking industries,strengthened emission standards of heavy diesel vehicles and non-road machinery,and promotion of standardized largescale breeding,soil testing technologies,the average annual concentration of PM_(2.5)in the’2+26’Cities will reach 34μg/m^(3),achieving the goal of’beautiful China’.(2)Due to structural adjustment,the emissions of PM_(2.5),SO_(2),NO_(x),NH_(3)and NMVOCs in 2030 will be reduced by 31%,44%,31%,5%and 11%,respectively,compared with 2017,and they will be further reduced by 75%,69%,77%,32%and 52%,respectively,due to end-of-pipe controls.(3)The contribution of the end-of-pipe controls to the emission reductions of primary PM_(2.5),NO_(x),NH_(3)and NMVOCs is greater than that of the structural adjustments.For SO_(2)emission reduction,structural adjustments has played a greater role.Research demonstrated that the control of SO_(2)before 2030 should shift the focus from the end-of-pipe measures to the structural adjustment

关 键 词：细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))污染 “2+26”城市 情景分析 减排潜力 模拟分析 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]