基于迁移的SIR模型的行人违章过街传播过程研究  

Study on the Propagation Process of Pedestrian Red-Light Violations Based on SIR Model with Migration

作　　者：郑明明[1] 张婉凝 刘岩[1] 吴晓桐 ZHENG Mingming;ZHANG Wanning;LIU Yan;WU Xiaotong(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian 116028,China;School of Traffic&Transportation,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)

机构地区：[1]大连交通大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116028 [2]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《大连交通大学学报》2023年第1期53-57,63,共6页Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅科学研究计划资助项目(JDL2017010)。

摘　　要：针对城市中普遍存在的红灯期间行人违章过街现象,建立了具有迁移的SIR模型,对行人违章过街的传播机理进行分析,并通过采集大连西安路人行横道处红灯期间行人违章数据,应用最小二乘法对模型的参数β和γ值进行估计,进而对建立的具有迁移性的SIR模型进行参数灵敏度分析,得到违章过街人数的变化趋势,以此提出减少行人违章过街人数的有效措施。In view of the widespread phenomenon of pedestrian violations during the red light period in the city, a SIR model with migration is established to analyze the propagation mechanism of pedestrian red-light violations. By collecting the pedestrian violation data during the red light period at the crosswalk of Xi’ an Road in Dalian, the parameters β and γ of the model are estimated by the least-square method, and then the parameter sensitivity analysis of the established SIR model with migration is carried out to obtain the change trend of the number of pedestrian red-light violations, so as to put forward effective measures to reduce the pedestrian violations.

关 键 词：违章过街 传播机理 具有迁移的SIR模型 最小二乘法 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]