小宗农产品价格波动及其随机性因素影响研究——以大蒜价格为例  

Study on Price Fluctuation of Small-scale Agricultural Products and Its Random Factors——Take garlic price as an example

作　　者：关付新[1] 姚睿宽 

机构地区：[1]河南财经政法大学

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2022年第9期117-120,206,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：河南省高等学校哲学社会科学创新团队项目“生产生态协调的乡村绿色发展问题研究”(2019-CXTD-06)。

摘　　要：稳定农产品价格对稳定农业产业链、保障农民收入、促进乡村振兴等具有重要意义。本文以大蒜价格为例,研究我国小宗农产品价格波动及其随机性因素影响,重点探究随机性因素与大蒜价格之间的经济联系,并运用大蒜价格的月度数据,通过TVP-SV-VAR模型进行实证分析。结果表明:随机性因素对我国大蒜价格造成的冲击主要以正向为主,即随机性事件的发生会引起大蒜价格上涨;随机性事件发生后,其冲击短期内对大蒜价格的影响最大,更容易造成大蒜价格异常波动。基于此,应进一步完善农产品价格信息发布体系,加强有关随机性因素及其对农产品价格冲击的研究,加强对小宗农产品价格的监管。Stabilizing the price of agricultural products is of great significance to stabilizing the agricultural industrial chain, ensuring farmers’ income and promoting rural revitalization. Taking the garlic price as an example, this paper studies the price fluctuation of small agricultural products in China and the impact of random factors, focusing on the economic relationship between random factors and garlic prices, and uses the monthly data of garlic prices to conduct empirical analysis through TVP-SV-VAR model. The results show that the impact of random factors on garlic prices in China is mainly positive, that is, the occurrence of random events will cause garlic prices to rise;After the occurrence of random events, its impact on garlic prices in the short term has the greatest impact, which is more likely to cause abnormal fluctuations in garlic prices.Based on this, we should further improve the agricultural product price information release system, strengthen the research on random factors and their impact on agricultural product prices, and strengthen the supervision of small agricultural product prices.

关 键 词：小宗农产品 农产品价格 大蒜价格 随机性因素 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]