基于“情景-应对”的随县柳林镇“8·12”山洪灾害推演  

Scenario response-based deduction of “8·12” torrential flood disaster in Liulin Town of Suixian County

作　　者：周琳 邹振华 章光[1] 周虹延 吴浩 胡少华[1] ZHOU Lin;ZOU Zhenhua;ZHANG Guang;ZHOU Hongyan;WU Hao;HU Shaohua(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,Hubei,China;Middle Changjiang River Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resource Survey,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430012,Hubei,China;School of Urban and Environmental Science,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]长江水利委员会长江中游水文水资源勘测局,湖北武汉430012 [3]华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2023年第1期14-23,共10页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52108315)。

摘　　要：【目的】降雨诱发的山洪具有暴涨暴落特点,其防御及应急也一直是我国防汛减灾工作中的薄弱环节。为指导山洪灾害应急救援工作,减少暴雨山洪带来的影响及损失,【方法】以湖北省随州市柳林镇“8·12”山洪灾害为研究对象,基于“情景-应对”式情景构建方法,采用无人机航测技术提取柳林镇地形、植被等信息要素,构建柳林镇“8·12”山洪事前、事中、事后情景;在此基础上耦合“水文-水动力”模型推演了暴雨诱发山洪的全过程,从而对本次灾害应急过程进行了深入分析。【结果】结果显示:柳林镇“8·12”山洪在12日3时30分左右洪水位开始猛增、2.5 h后即达到峰值,最高淹没深度超5 m,峰值过后3.5 h洪水基本褪却,极快的流速和暴涨的水位导致有效转移时间不足1 h。【结论】结果表明:基于“情景-应对”式灾害情景构建方法,可全景式再现山洪灾害孕灾-发灾-致灾全过程;耦合水文-水动力模型在无人机获取的高精度地形数据基础上具有较高的适用性;能力评估揭示了本次山洪灾害重大人员伤亡的主要原因是气象预警能力不足、人员撤离不及时以及应急救援力量薄弱。[Objective] The mountain torrents induced by rainfall are characterized by rapid rise and fall, and their prevention and emergency response have always been the weak link in flood control and disaster reduction in China. In order to guide the emergency rescue of mountain torrents and reduce the impact and loss, [Methods] the “8·12” mountain torrent disaster in Liulin Town, Suizhou City, Hubei Province was taken as the research object. Based on the “scenario response” scenario construction method, and employing UAV aerial survey technology to extract the terrain, vegetation and other information elements of Liulin Town, and build the “8·12” mountain torrents before, during and after the event;On this basis, the whole process of torrential rain induced flash floods was deduced by coupling the “hydrological hydrodynamic” model. [Results] The results showed that the “8·12” mountain torrent in Liulin Town started to surge at about 3:30 on the 12th, and reached its peak 2.5 hours later. The maximum submergence depth was more than 5 m, and the flood basically faded 3.5 hours after the peak. The extremely fast flow rate and the soaring water level led to the effective transfer time of less than 1 h. [Conclusion] The results show that: based on the “scenario response” disaster scenario construction method, the whole process of mountain flood disaster pregnancy disaster occurrence disaster can be represented in a panoramic way;The coupled hydrological hydrodynamic model has high applicability on the basis of high-precision terrain data obtained by UAV;The capability assessment revealed that the main reasons for the heavy casualties in this flash flood disaster were insufficient meteorological early warning capability, untimely evacuation of personnel and weak emergency rescue force.

关 键 词：山洪灾害 情景-应对 情景构建 情景推演 应急能力 极端降雨 降水 水文-水动力模型 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]