西南地区生态系统服务供需历史变化与SSP-RCP情景预测  

Mapping ecosystem service supply and demand:historical changes and projections under SSP-RCP scenarios

作　　者：卢慧婷 Stringer Lindsay C. 严岩[1,5] 王辰星 赵春黎[1] 荣月静 朱捷缘 吴钢 DALLIMER Martin[3] LU Huiting;STRINGER Lindsay C.;YAN Yan;WANG Chenxing;ZHAO Chunli;RONG Yuejing;ZHU Jieyuan;WU Gang;DALLIMER Martin(State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100085,China;CAUPD Beijing Planning&Design Consultants Ltd.,Beijing 100044,China;School of Earth and Environment,University of Leeds,Leeds LS29JT,United Kingdom;Department of Environment and Geography,University of York,York YO105NG,United Kingdom;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Changjiang Institute of Survey,Planning,Design and Research,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京100085 [2]中规院(北京)规划设计有限公司,北京100044 [3]利兹大学地球与环境学院,英国利兹LS29JT [4]约克大学环境与地理学院,英国约克YO105NG [5]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [6]长江勘测规划设计研究院,武汉430010

出　　处：《生态学报》2023年第4期1309-1325,共17页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71673268);国家自然科学基金项目(72174193);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0502102)。

摘　　要：生态系统服务的供需平衡对实现可持续发展至关重要。为了更好地了解过去气候变化和社会经济发展对生态系统服务的影响,并对未来不同气候和社会经济发展情景做出正确响应,有必要对生态系统服务的供需变化进行系统的评估和预测。研究对我国西南地区2000、2010、2015年的水源涵养、食物生产和固碳3项生态系统服务的供给和需求进行了定量的空间评估,然后基于IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)提出的社会经济发展和气候变化联合情景框架,即SSP-RCP情景(Shared Socio-economic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways),对此3项生态系统服务在未来2035年和2050年的供给和需求进行了SSP1-RCP2.6、SSP2-RCP4.5、SSP4-RCP6.0和SSP5-RCP8.5 4个情景下的预测。结果显示,西南地区水源涵养和固碳服务的供给和需求具有显著的空间不匹配特征,且其需求从2000—2015年分别增长了11.49%和252.41%。根据SSP-RCP情景预测结果,水源涵养供给服务受到不同情景下气候变化的影响最大,而固碳服务面临的不确定性最大。4个情景中,SSP5-RCP8.5情景下各项生态系统服务从2035—2050年的变化最为剧烈,而SSP1-RCP2.6和SSP2-RCP4.5情景下各项生态系统服务的变化相对较小。采用了一套系统地评估生态系统服务供给和需求的方法,对生态系统服务供需的定量化研究具有指示意义,并创新地应用了SSP-RCP情景框架,综合考虑了未来不同情景下的气候变化和社会经济发展,对生态系统服务供需进行了预测。Ecosystem service is the bridge linking natural ecosystem and socioeconomic system. Understanding the supply and demand of ecosystem services and their spatial matching characteristics, so as to achieve the balance of ecosystem service supply and demand, is very important to maintain regional ecological security and sustainable development. At present, the assessment methods of ecosystem service supply and demand, as well as the optimization methods of ecological security pattern, are still at the initial stage, and lack of research on future projections. In order to better understand the impact of past climate change and socio-economic development on ecosystem services and ecological security pattern, and to inform responses to different climate and socio-economic development scenarios in the future, it is necessary to systematically assess and forecast the supply and demand of ecosystem services. In this study, we quantitatively assessed and mapped the supply and demand of three ESs, namely water provision, food production and carbon sequestration, in 2000, 2010 and 2015 in Southwest China. We then projected the supply and demand of the three ESs under IPCC′s(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) four SSP-RCP(Shared Socio-economic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios. The historical supply and demand of water provision service and carbon sequestration service showed significantly spatial mismatch, with ES demand increasing substantially from 2000 to 2015. Future projections suggest that water provisioning service is most affected by climate change, future carbon sequestration is faced with most uncertainties, and SSP5-RCP8.5 is the most extreme scenario under which the ES supply and demand show the substantial changes. Since this study is a relatively long-term systematic ES assessment in a large region, there are inevitably some limitations in the methods and data. However, the aim of this study is to assess and project ecological and socioeconomical changes at a large spatial scale

关 键 词：生态系统服务 SSP-RCP情景 气候变化 情景预测 供给和需求 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]