基于HEA算法的红山水库富营养化模拟和预测研究  

Simulation and Prediction of Eutrophication in Hongshan Reservoir by Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm

作　　者：刘旭华 宋振宏 刘华民 曹晓霭 温璐 于晓雯 翟继武 王立新 LIU Xuhua;SONG Zhenhong;LIU Huamin;CAO Xiaoai;WEN Lu;YU Xiaowen;ZHAI Jiwu;WANG Lixin(l.College of Ecology and Environment,Inner Mongolia University,Hohhot O1002l,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Grassland Ecological Security(Jointly Supported by the Ministry of Education of China and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region),Hohhot O10021,China;Chifeng Substation,Inner Mongolia Environmental Monitoring Station,Chifeng O24000,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古大学生态与环境学院,呼和浩特010021 [2]草原生态安全省部共建协同创新中心,呼和浩特010021 [3]内蒙古自治区环境监测总站赤峰分站,内蒙古赤峰024000

出　　处：《内蒙古大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第1期53-60,共8页Journal of Inner Mongolia University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(32160279,3211101852,31960249);内蒙古科技重大专项项目(ZDZX2018054)。

摘　　要：随着经济的发展,红山水库周边的污染物排放量提高,导致水库水体富营养化问题日益突出。基于红山水库2006-2020年两个监测点水质监测数据,分析红山水库水体富营养化发展趋势,通过混合演化算法(HEA)构建红山水库水体叶绿素a浓度模拟与预测模型,结合模型阈值数据和敏感性分析,揭示影响红山水库叶绿素a浓度变化的环境因素,并量化其相关关系。研究表明:(1)红山水库两个监测点2006-2013年叶绿素a浓度波动较大,2013-2020年叶绿素a浓度呈逐渐升高的趋势;(2)红山水库北部和南部叶绿素a浓度的模型拟合值与实际测量值之间的相关系数(R^(2))分别为0.60和0.58,均方根误差(RMSE)分别为2.09和2.59 mg·m^(-3);(3)HEA最佳单规则集的阈值和敏感性分析表明,叶绿素a浓度在一定范围内与水温(WT)、化学需氧量(COD)、高锰酸盐指数(COD_(Mn))、溶解氧(DO)和氟(F)成正比,与铵态氮(NH_(4)-N)和生化需氧量(BOD5)变化不显著。HEA模型能够较为精确地模拟红山水库叶绿素a浓度在2006-2020年之间的变化,并对未来水库水质和富营养化进程起到一定的预测作用。With the development of economy, the pollutant discharge around Hongshan reservoir has increased, and the eutrophication of reservoir water is becoming increasingly prominent.Based on the water quality data of two monitoring stations of Hongshan reservoir from 2006 to 2020,the development trend of water eutrophication was analyzed.A simulation and prediction model of chlorophyll-a concentration was built through hybrid evolutionary algorithm(HEA).Combined with the model threshold data and sensitivity analysis, the environmental factors affecting the change of chlorophyll-a concentration were revealed, and their correlation was quantified.The results showed that:(1) the concentration of chlorophyll-a fluctuated greatly from 2006 to 2013 in the two monitoring sites, and then gradually increased from 2013 to 2020;(2) the correlation coefficients between HEA model fitting values and actual measured values were 0.60 and 0.58,and the root mean square errors were 2.09 and 2.59 mg·m^(-3),respectively;(3) the threshold and sensitivity analysis of the optimal single rule set for HEA showed that chlorophyll-a concentration was proportional to water temperature(WT),chemical oxygen demand(COD),permanganate index(COD_(Mn)),dissolved oxygen(DO) and fluorine(F) within a certain range, but not significantly related with NH_(4)-N and BOD5.HEA model can accurately simulate the changes of chlorophyll-a concentration in Hongshan reservoir, and played a certain role in predicting water quality and eutrophication process of lake in the future.

关 键 词：红山水库 叶绿素A浓度 混合演化算法(HEA) 富营养化 

分 类 号：Q142[生物学—生态学] X171.1[生物学—普通生物学]