计及新能源随机特性的备用容量确定及其成本分摊  

Reserve Capacity Determination and Its Cost Allocation Considering Stochastic Characteristics of Renewable Energy

作　　者：刘硕 杨燕 杨知方 陈启鑫[1] LIU Shuo;YANG Yan;YANG Zhifang;CHEN Qixin(Department of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Beijing Power Trading Center Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100031,China;Chongqing Key Laboratory of Computational Intelligence(Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications),Chongqing 400065,China;State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment&System Security and New Technology(Chongqing University),Chongqing 400030,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系,北京市100084 [2]北京电力交易中心有限公司,北京市100031 [3]计算智能重庆市重点实验室(重庆邮电大学),重庆市400065 [4]输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室(重庆大学),重庆市400030

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2023年第4期10-18,共9页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(52177072);重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX0578)。

摘　　要：预留备用是应对电力系统强不确定性的必要举措,随着电力市场改革的不断推进,如何科学确定备用容量,并将备用费用在各责任方间公平合理地分摊是实现电力市场化改革的关键之一。针对负荷、新能源等不确定性,提出了备用容量估计及其成本分摊方法,根据不确定性预测误差的波动特征确定备用容量,并基于Vickrey-Clarke-Groves(VCG)理论合理分摊备用成本。首先,利用非参数核密度估计方法刻画新能源/负荷预测误差的概率密度曲线,无须假设新能源/负荷服从某一固定分布,并在此基础上提出基于蒙特卡洛法的备用需求场景模拟生成方法,确定备用总容量。然后,根据VCG理论,通过一个市场参与者(新能源/负荷)对其他市场参与者的替代效益进行价值量化,基于价值大小按比例分配备用成本到新能源/负荷一侧。最后,以修改的IEEE 30节点系统以及中国某省级电网661节点系统为例进行仿真分析,验证所提方法的有效性。Standby reserve is a necessary measure to deal with the strong uncertainty of power systems. With the continuous advancement of the electricity market reform, one of the keys is to scientifically determine the reserve capacity and allocate the reserve cost fairly and reasonably among the responsible participants. In view of the uncertainties of load, renewable energy, etc.,this paper proposes a method for reserve capacity estimation and its cost allocation. The reserve capacity is determined according to the fluctuations of uncertainty prediction errors, and the reserve cost is allocated reasonably by Vickrey-Clarke-Groves(VCG)theory. First, an estimation method based on non-parametric kernel density is proposed to describe probability density curves of prediction errors for renewable energy/loads. It does not need to assume that the renewable energy follows a fixed distribution. On this basis, scenario simulation generation method of the reserve demand is proposed based on the Monte Carlo method to determine the total reserve capacity. Then, according to the VCG theory, the value of one market participant(the renewable energy/load) is quantified by the substitution benefits of other market participants, and the reserve cost is allocated to the renewable energy/load side proportionally based on the value. Finally, taking the modified IEEE 30-bus system and 661-bus system of a provincial power grid in China as examples for simulation analysis, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.

关 键 词：备用容量 成本分摊 非参数核密度 蒙特卡洛法 Vickrey-Clarke-Groves(VCG)理论 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]