基于LSSVM的电-气区域综合能源系统短期可靠性评估  

Short-term Reliability Evaluation of Electricity-Gas Regional Integrated Energy System Based on Least Squares Support Vector Machine

作　　者：彭寒梅[1] 彭紫洁 苏永新[1] 谭貌[2] PENG Hanmei;PENG Zijie;SU Yongxin;TAN Mao(College of Automation and Electronic Information,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan 411105,China;Hunan Engineering Research Center of Multi-energy Cooperative Control Technology(Xiangtan University),Xiangtan 411105,China)

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学自动化与电子信息学院,湖南省湘潭市411105 [2]湖南省多能协同控制技术工程研究中心(湘潭大学),湖南省湘潭市411105

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2023年第4期69-77,共9页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61873222);湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2020JJ4580)。

摘　　要：电-气区域综合能源系统电、气相互影响,一方面使得模型驱动的单一能源系统可靠性评估方法不再适用;另一方面由于天然气的引入,导致其短期可靠性评估计算开销大。为综合解决这两个问题,提出用机理模型结果训练最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM),由LSSVM在线评估短期可靠性的方法。首先,建立元件可靠性模型,提出基于系统等效节点模型的故障后果分析方法。在此基础上,构建基于蒙特卡洛模拟的模型驱动短期可靠性评估方法,获得训练样本。然后,构建LSSVM回归模型,通过离线训练,得到系统状态与短期可靠性指标间映射的LSSVM模型,实现系统短期可靠性实时评估。最后,电-气区域综合能源算例系统测试验证了所提方法的准确性和快速性。The mutual influence of electricity and gas in the electricity-gas regional integrated energy system makes the reliability evaluation method of model-driven single energy system no longer applicable. On the other hand, due to the natural gas, the calculation cost of short-term reliability evaluation is high. In order to comprehensively solve these two problems, a method is proposed which trains the least squares support vector machine(LSSVM) with the results of the mechanism model, and evaluates the short-term reliability online by the LSSVM. Firstly, component reliability models are established, and an analysis method of failure consequences based on the system equivalent node model is proposed. On this basis, a model-driven short-term reliability evaluation method based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed, and training samples are constructed. Then, the LSSVM regression model is constructed, and through offline training, the LSSVM model of the mapping between the system states and the short-term reliability indices is obtained, so as to realize real-time short-term reliability evaluation of the system. Finally, the test of electricity-gas regional integrated energy case system verifies the rapidity and accuracy of the proposed method.

关 键 词：综合能源系统 可靠性评估 最小二乘支持向量机 模型驱动 等效节点模型 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理] TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]