2020年辽宁省汛期多模式降水预报评估  

Verification for precipitation forecasted by NWP models in Liaoning province during the summer of 2020

作　　者：谭政华 陆忠艳 林海峰[1,2] 聂安祺 滕方达 TAN Zheng-hua;LU Zhong-yan;LIN Hai-feng;NIE An-qi;TENG Fang-da(Institute of Atmospheric Environment,China Meteorological Administration,Shenyang 110166,China;Liaoning Meteorological Observatory,Shenyang 110166,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]辽宁省气象台,辽宁沈阳110166

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2023年第1期10-16,共7页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所和东北冷涡研究重点开放实验室联合开放基金(2020SYIAE10和2021SYIAEKFMS05);国家重点研发计划重点专项项目(2017YFC1502004);辽宁省气象局2021年科研课题重点课题(202101)共同资助。

摘　　要：基于7种数值预报产品,采用二分类检验和频率分布检验方法,对2020年5—9月辽宁省24 h降水预报、3 h降水量20 mm以上的强降水预报进行检验评估。结果表明:多数数值模式均存在降水预报频次偏多的误差特征,尤其是全球模式,对弱降水过程的过度预报特征更为明显。数值模式对24 h中雨量级降水的预报效果普遍较好,全球模式对强降水的预报效果较差。SHANGHAI、BEIJING中尺度模式对不同量级降水的预报效果总体好于其他模式,GRAPES_3km中尺度模式的强降水预报频率偏高,SHANGHAI中尺度模式的降水极值预报强度偏大,ECMWF模式的各量级降水预报性能较均衡,对强降水也有一定的预报能力。中尺度模式对白天时段的强降水预报效果较好,但从初始时刻后第6~9 h的预报效果较差。数值模式对大范围强降水过程及小范围稳定性强降水过程的预报效果较好,对副热带高压后部小范围强降水过程预报效果较差,无法预报大雨以上量级降水。Based on seven kinds of numerical weather prediction(NWP)products,the binary test and frequency distribution test methods were used to test and evaluate the 24 h precipitation forecast and the 3 h heavy precipitation forecast with more than 20 mm precipitation in Liaoning province from May to September of 2020.The results show that most NWP models have the error characteristic of excessive precipitation forecast frequency,especially the global model,which is more obvious for the excessive forecast of the weak precipitation process.The prediction effect of the numerical model is generally good for the 24 h moderate rainfall,while the global model is poor for heavy rainfall.The forecast intensity of extreme precipitation in the SHANGHAI mesoscale model is higher than the observations.The ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)model has the balanced performance of different grades precipitation forecasting.It also has some ability to forecast heavy precipitation.The mesoscale model has a good forecast effect on heavy precipitation during the daytime,but the forecast effect becomes worse at 6-9 h after the initial time.The NWP models have a good forecasting effect on the large-scale heavy precipitation process and the small-scale stable heavy precipitation process,but a poor forecasting effect on the small-scale heavy precipitation process behind the subtropical high.

关 键 词：全球模式 中尺度模式 降水预报 模式评估 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]