2015年-2020年乌鲁木齐市急性心脑血管疾病死亡流行特征及时间序列预测研究  

Epidemiological Characteristics and Countermeasures of Death from Acute Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases in Urumqi from 2015 to 2020 and Research on Time Series Prediction

作　　者：景盼姣 赵娥[2] 孙高峰[2] 向昭 Jing Panjiao;Zhao E;Sun Gaofeng;Xiang Zhao(School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830000,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,新疆维吾尔自治区乌鲁木齐市830000 [2]乌鲁木齐市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制科,新疆维吾尔自治区乌鲁木齐市830026

出　　处：《中国病案》2023年第2期50-54,共5页Chinese Medical Record

基　　金：国家自然基金项目(U1803124);疾病预防控制中心科研基金项目(SJK2021003)。

摘　　要：目的 了解乌鲁木齐市急性心脑血管疾病的死亡特点及趋势,为开展科学防治提供依据。方法 收集2015年1月1日-2020年12月31日乌鲁木齐市急性心脑血管疾病的死亡资料,共收集11180例。对心脑血管疾病的死亡率、标化死亡率、动态数列等指标进行统计分析。同时利用时间序列ARIMA模型对2015年1月1日-2020年6月30日的死亡数据进行建模,预测2020年7月1日-12月31日的死亡数据,并对预测效果进行评价。结果 2015年-2020年乌鲁木齐市急性心脑血管疾病的死亡率在44.53/10万-58.96/10万之间,标化死亡率在44.70/10万-59.71/10万之间。标化死亡率整体呈下降的趋势,平均每年下降3.08%。男性死亡率高于女性(P<0.05)。急性心脑血管疾病的死亡顺位依次为急性心肌梗死、脑梗死、脑出血、心源性猝死、蛛网膜下腔出血、未分类脑卒中。随着年龄的增长,心脑血管疾病的死亡率逐渐增加,从70岁组死亡率急剧增加,85岁以后达到高峰。通过建立最优的ARIMA时间序列模型,实际值在预测值的95%的置信区间内,模型拟合度良好。预测2020年7月-12月心脑血管疾病的死亡数为153、129、136、165、160、178。结论 2015年-2020年乌鲁木齐市急性心脑血管疾病死亡率的流行趋势整体呈现下降趋势。为达到健康中国行动的目标,需进一步加强对重点病种、男性、老年人群的健康监测。Objectives To understand the death characteristics and trend of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Urumqi, so as to provide basis for scientific prevention and treatment. Methods The death data of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Urumqi from January 1st, 2015 to December 31st, 2020 were collected. A total of 11180 cases were collected. The mortality, standardized mortality and dynamic series of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were statistically analyzed. At the same time, the time series ARIMA model was used to model the death data from January 1st, 2015 to June 30th, 2020, predict the death data from July 1st to December 31st, 2020, and evaluate the prediction effect. Results From 2015 to 2020,the mortality rate of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Urumqi was between 44.53/100000 and 58.96/100000, and the standardized mortality rate was between 44.70/100000 and 59.71/100000. The standardized mortality rate showed a downward trend as a whole, with an average annual decline of 3.08%. The mortality rate of men was higher than that of women(P<0.05). The death order of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases was acute myocardial infarction, cerebral infarction, cerebral hemorrhage, sudden cardiac death, subarachnoid hemorrhage and unclassified stroke. With the growth of age, the mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases increases gradually, the mortality increases sharply from 70 years old to 85 years old.By establishing the optimal ARIMA time series model, the actual value was within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted value, and the fitting degree of the model was good. It was predicted that the number of deaths from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases from July to December 2020 would be 153, 129, 136, 165, 160 and 178. Conclusions From 2015 to 2020, the epidemic trend of mortality of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Urumqi showed a downward trend as a whole. In order to achieve the goa

关 键 词：心脑血管疾病 死亡率 流行趋势 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：R54[医药卫生—心血管疾病] R743[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]