京津冀城市群需水量预测与供水工程建设措施研究  

Prediction of water demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration and its water supply projects construction

作　　者：双晴[1] 赵瑞婷 SHUANG Qing;ZHAO Ruiting(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《人民长江》2023年第3期96-103,共8页Yangtze River

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2019JBW007);国家自然科学基金项目(71501008);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(20YJC630121);北京市社会科学基金项目(18GLC070)。

摘　　要：京津冀城市群属于严重缺水地区,对其需水量进行科学合理预测是水务部门规划建设未来供水工程项目的前提和基础。针对京津冀城市群需水量开展预测研究,确定与经济、社会、用水和资源可用性相关的解释变量,利用京津冀城市群2004~2020年数据,建立了6种机器学习需水量预测模型,构建预测情景以寻求最优预测模型;根据京津冀城市群可供水量数据,测算出2021~2025年供需差。结果表明:XGBoost模型性能最好,误差最低,预测准确率达99.98%;预测京津冀城市群2021~2025年年均需水量较往年略有下降,在250.6亿m 3左右波动;2021~2025年供水工程供需缺口总量预计约6亿m 3。针对京津冀城市群供水工程规划建设,建议从持续推进南水北调工程建设、统筹协调绿色节水型城市建设和不断优化城市群供水管网建设等方面开展。The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is a serious water shortage area,so scientific and reasonable prediction of its water demand is the premise and foundation for the water department to plan and construct future water supply projects.A prediction study was conducted on the water demand of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration.Explanatory variables related to economy,society,water use and resource availability were identified.Based on the data of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration from 2004 to 2020,six machine learning models were established to seek the optimal prediction model.The water supply data was also collected and analyzed to further measure the difference between water supply and demand in 2021~2025.The results show that XGBoost model has the best performance and the lowest error,and the prediction accuracy is 99.98%.It is predicted that the average annual water demand of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration from 2021 to 2025 will decrease slightly compared with previous years,fluctuating at around 25.06 billion m 3.The total gap between supply and demand of water supply projects in 2021~2025 is expected to be about 600 million m 3.In view of the planning and construction of water supply projects in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration,it is suggested to carry out the planning from the following aspects,continuously promoting the construction of South-to-North Water Diversion Project,coordinating the construction of green water-saving cities and continuously optimizing the construction of water supply network in the urban agglomeration.

关 键 词：京津冀城市群 需水量预测 机器学习 供水工程 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]