追踪研究中的内生性问题:来源与应对  

The endogeneity issue in longitudinal research:Sources and solutions

作　　者：方俊燕 温忠麟 FANG Junyan;WEN Zhonglin(School of Leisure Sports and Management,Guangzhou Sport University,Guangzhou 510500,China;School of Psychology/Center for Studies of Psychological Application,South China Normal University,Guangzhou 510631,China)

机构地区：[1]广州体育学院休闲体育与管理学院,广州510500 [2]华南师范大学心理学院/心理应用研究中心,广州510631

出　　处：《心理科学进展》2023年第4期507-518,共12页Advances in Psychological Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(32171091)资助。

摘　　要：相对于横断研究,追踪研究中更有可能同时存在多种内生性问题来源。双变量追踪研究在心理学因果分析中发挥了重要的作用,然而其中的内生性问题却未得到应有的关注,这可能会影响推论的准确性。追踪研究中内生性问题的来源视乎模型而定,主要包括遗漏变量、变量选择和样本选择、解释变量的测量误差、动态面板和变量之间的相互关系。本文以代表性追踪模型CLPM为例,展示了内生性问题的影响,讨论了在原模型中运用工具变量来建模以应对内生性问题的可行性,目的是使心理学研究者能够关注追踪研究中的内生性问题,更好地运用追踪模型进行因果分析。The endogeneity issue is often induced by limited causes in cross-sectional studies,while multiple sources of endogeneity may exist in longitudinal research.Bivariate longitudinal studies have been widely utilized in the exploration of causation in behavioral and psychological sciences,while the endogeneity issue in longitudinal research has received little attention,which may impair estimation accuracy.In this study,we elaborate on the main sources of endogeneity in longitudinal research,including omitted variables,self-selection,sample selection,measurement error in the predictors,dynamic panel,and reciprocal relation.Taking the Cross-lagged panel model as an example,the empirical analysis reveals the impact of endogeneity.We also discuss the feasibility and rationality of applying instrumental variables in the longitudinal model to deal with the endogeneity.The purposes are to draw more attention to the endogeneity issue and to promote better use of longitudinal models in causal analysis.

关 键 词：内生性问题 追踪研究 交叉滞后面板模型 工具变量 

分 类 号：B841[哲学宗教—基础心理学]