WRF模式对渤海和黄海海面风预报误差分析  

Analysis of Sea Surface Wind Prediction Error in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea by WRF Model

作　　者：刘桂艳[1] 连喜虎 高松[1] 徐江玲[1] 王彬[1] LIU Guiyan;LIAN Xihu;GAO Song;XU Jiangling;WANG Bin(North China Sea Marine Forecasting Center of State Oceanic Administration,Qingdao 266061,China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局北海预报中心,山东青岛266061

出　　处：《防灾科技学院学报》2023年第1期40-48,共9页Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention

基　　金：亚洲合作资金项目(121206003000210010)。

摘　　要：基于WRF模式的2019年24h、48h和72h预报结果,选取渤海、黄海8个浮标站位观测的海面10m风速和风向进行直接对比检验和误差统计分析。结果表明:(1)模式24h预报结果最优,随着预报时效的增长,预报值与实测值相关性下降,预报值离散度增大;(2)当实测风力在45级时,预报风速与实测风速平均偏差最小,两者在数值大小上吻合最好,随着风力增大(或减小),平均偏差和均方根误差增大;(3)不同风向条件下的风向平均绝对误差均在0°~30°,其中N向风时,风向平均绝对误差最小,其次为S和SW向,当实测风向为东向风时,WRF预报的风向误差最大;(4)不同海域而言,WRF对黄海海域风速风向的预报能力明显优于渤海海域,这主要是由于渤海海域的特殊地理位置导致,WRF模式对冷空气导致的大风过程的预报效果优于对台风导致的大风过程的预报。We compared the 24h,48h and 72h forecast results in 2019 by WRF model and the wind speed and the wind direction at 10m above the sea surface observed at eight buoy stations in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea and analyzed their errors.The results show as follows:(1)The 24h forecast results by WRF model are the best.With the increase of the forecasting time scale,the correlation between forecast values and observed values decreases,and the dispersion of forecast values increases.(2)When the observed wind scale is 4~5,the average deviation between the WRF forecast wind speed and observed wind speed is the smallest,i.e.,they agree with each other the best.With the increase(or decrease)of the observed wind scale,both average deviation and root mean square error increase.(3)The average absolute error of wind direction in different wind direction is 0°~30°,and the average absolute error of the wind direction in N direction is the smallest,followed by S and SW directions.When the observed wind is in the east,the direction error forecasted by WRF is the largest.(4)The forecast ability of WRF for wind speed and wind direction in the Yellow Sea is significantly better than that in the Bohai Sea,which is mainly due to the special geographical location of the latter.Besides,the forecast effect by WRF model for gale process caused by cold air is better than that for gale process caused by typhoon.

关 键 词：数值模拟 WRF 海面10m风 相关系数 均方根误差 平均偏差 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]