气候变暖对晋北黄土高原半干旱区马铃薯适播期的影响  

Effects of climate warming on potato sowing time in the semi-arid area of Loess Plateau in North Shanxi Province

作　　者：马雅丽[1] 栾青[1] 李效珍 刘文平[1] 李芬 班胜林 李海涛[1] 张娜 张祎玮 MA Yali;LUAN Qing;LI Xiaozhen;LIU Wenping;LI Fen;BAN Shenglin;LI Haitao;ZHANG Na;ZHANG Yiwei(Shanxi Climate Center,Taiyuan,Shanxi 030006,China;Datong Meteorological Bureau,Datong,Shanxi 037010,China;Shanxi Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technological Center,Taiyuan,Shanxi 030032,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省气候中心,山西太原030006 [2]大同市气象局,山西大同037010 [3]山西省气象灾害防御技术中心,山西太原030032

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2023年第2期274-281,共8页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201838,CCSF201945);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J067);山西省重点研发计划项目(201903D321006);山西省气象局面上项目(SXKMSNY20185115)。

摘　　要：以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化对马铃薯物候期、生长发育及产量都产生很大影响,研究马铃薯生长季热量资源和适播期变化特征,对调整品种布局和合理利用气候资源具有重要意义。利用1981—2016年晋北地区地面气象观测站和农业气象观测站资料,通过趋势分析和相关分析,研究晋北马铃薯气候资源变化特征及对马铃薯产量的影响;基于积温稳定性原理,建立气象产量预测模型,得出最高气象产量对应的适播期,并分析适播期的年代变化特征。结果表明,晋北马铃薯生长季气温以0.32℃·10a^(-1)速率呈升温趋势,≥5℃积温以47.0℃·d·10a^(-1)速率呈增加趋势。气候变暖背景下对晋北马铃薯产量影响显著的气候因子主要是出苗~分枝期的平均气温,全生育期的积温、日照时数、需水量,出苗~分枝期、花序形成~可收期及全生育期的最高气温≥30℃的日数。气温和日照基本为负效应,降水在营养生长期为负效应,生殖生长期为正效应。晋北马铃薯适播期随着气候变暖有提前的趋势,20世纪80年代适播期在5月上旬末至5月中旬,90年代适播期在5月上旬,21世纪最初10 a适播期在4月下旬至5月上旬初,2010年以后马铃薯适播期提前到4月中旬末至4月下旬。建议晋北黄土高原半干旱区盆地地区种植中晚熟品种,尽量选择早播,可以选择4月中旬末至4月下旬,高海拔地区建议种植中熟品种或采取地膜覆盖提早播期来种植中晚熟品种,可以在4月下旬末至5月上旬播种。Climate change mainly characterized by climate warming has a great impact on potato phenology,growth and yield.It is of great significance to study the change characteristics of potato heat resources and suitable sowing date in growing season for adjusting variety layout and rational utilization of climate resources.Based on the data of ground meteorological observation stations and agrometeorological observation stations from 1981 to 2016,the variation characteristics of potato climatic resources in North Shanxi Province and their impact on potato yield were studied by trend analysis and correlation analysis methods.Based on the principle of accumulated temperature stability,a meteorological yield prediction model was established to calculate the suitable sowing date of maximum meteorological yield,and the effect of climate change on potato trial sowing date was analyzed.The temperature of potato growing season in North Shanxi showed an increasing trend of 0.32℃·10a^(-1),and the accumulated temperature≥5℃had an increasing trend of 47.0℃·d·10a^(-1).The climatic factors that had a significant impact on potato yield in North Shanxi under the background of climate warming were mainly the average temperature in the emergence~branching period,the accumulated temperature,sunshine hours and water demand in the whole growth period,the emergence~branching period,the inflorescence formation period~availability,and the number of days with the highest temperature≥30℃in the whole growth period.Temperature and sunshine had basically negative effects,precipitation was a negative effect in the vegetative growth period,and a positive effect in the reproductive growth period.In North Shanxi Province,the optimum sowing period of potatoes tended to advance with climate warming.In 1980s,the optimum sowing period was from the end of early May to mid-May.In 1990s,the optimum sowing period was in early May.In the first decade of the 21st century,the optimum sowing period was from late April to early May.After 2010,the opt

关 键 词：气候变暖 马铃薯 适播期 产量 晋北黄土高原半干旱区 

分 类 号：S532[农业科学—作物学] S35S16