2014-2021年深圳市户籍居民结直肠癌死亡变化情况分析及预测研究  

Analysis and prediction of colorectal cancer death among registered residents in Shenzhen from 2014 to 2021

作　　者：付英斌[1] 魏双翼 廖佳 高钰杰 刘刚[1] 黄海燕[1,2] Fu Yingbin;Wei Shuangyi;Liao Jia;Gao Yujie;Liu Gang;Huang Haiyan(Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenzhen 518055,China;Department of Epidemiologyand Medical Statistics,School of Public Health,Guangdong Medical University,Dongguan 523808,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳市疾病预防控制中心,广东深圳518055 [2]广东医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学教研室,广东东莞523808

出　　处：《实用肿瘤杂志》2023年第2期122-126,共5页Journal of Practical Oncology

基　　金：深圳市医学重点学科建设经费资助项目(SZXK069)。

摘　　要：目的 利用Joinpoint线性回归和灰色模型GM(1,1)相结合的方法对深圳市户籍居民结直肠癌的死亡变化情况进行分析及预测,为结直肠癌防治提供参考依据。方法 对2014年1月1日至2021年12月31日深圳市死因监测数据进行统计分析,用Joinpoint Regression Program 4.9.0软件划分年龄段和分析年度变化趋势,并用灰色模型GM(1,1)进行预测。结果 深圳市2014-2021年户籍居民因结直肠癌死亡1 945例,年均粗死亡率5.63/10万(标化死亡率10.93/10万)。男性年均粗死亡率(6.31/10万)大于女性(4.90/10万),差异具有统计学意义(χ2=30.25,P<0.01)。Joinpoint分析显示,45~74岁人群、≥75岁人群以及全人群粗死亡率年度变化均呈上升趋势,年度变化百分比分别为6.60%、6.47%和6.75%。GM(1,1)预测2022-2024年全人群、45~74岁人群和≥75岁人群结直肠癌粗死亡率均呈上升趋势。结论 深圳市户籍居民结直肠癌粗死亡率经灰色模型GM(1,1)预测呈上升趋势,仍需加强综合防控,降低结直肠癌的死亡水平。Objective To analyze and predict the change of colorectal cancer deaths in Shenzhen residents by using the combined method of Joinpoint linear regression and grey model GM(1,1),so as to provide reference for the prevention and treatment of colorectal cancer.Methods The surveillance data of the causes of death in Shenzhen from January 1st,2014 to December 31st,2021 were analyzed.Joinpoint Regression Program 4.9.0 software was used to divide age groups and analyze the annual change trend,and grey model GM(1,1)was used to predict causes of death.Results There were 1945 cases of colorectal cancer deaths in Shenzhen from 2014 to 2021,with an average annual crude death rate of 5.63/100000(standardized death rate:10.93/100000).The average annual crude death rate of males(6.31/100000)was higher than that of females(4.90/100000),and the difference was statistically significant(χ2=30.25,P<0.01).The Join-point analysis showed that the annual changes in crude death rates in the 45-74 years old group,the≥75 years old group and the entire population showed an upward trend,with annual percent changes of 6.60%,6.47%and 6.75%,respectively.Grey model GM(1,1)predicted that the crude death rate of colorectal cancer in the entire population,the 45-74 years old group and the≥75 years old group showed an upward trend during 2022-2024.Conclusions The crude death rate of colorectal cancer among Shenzhen residents predicted by grey model GM(1,1)shows an upward trend.Therefore,it is still necessary to strengthen comprehensive prevention and control so as to reduce the death of colorectal cancer patients.

关 键 词：结直肠癌 死亡率 Joinpoint 灰色模型GM(1 1) 

分 类 号：R735.34[医药卫生—肿瘤]