地下水中污染物健康风险评价相关参数敏感性分析研究  

作　　者：杨月明 吴欣甜 魏婷婷 刘帅帅 

机构地区：[1]易景环境科技(天津)股份有限公司,天津300384 [2]新生代环境科技(天津)有限公司,天津300385

出　　处：《环境保护与循环经济》2023年第2期29-34,共6页environmental protection and circular economy

摘　　要：为了解土壤及地下水理化性质参数对地下水中苯和氯仿的健康风险评价结果不确定性的影响,为我国地下水污染场地数据收集及风险评价中参数合理取值提供借鉴,以北方紧邻某化工搬迁企业的场地为例,基于概率风险评价评估地下水中污染物苯和氯仿的总致癌风险水平,并对地下水水位埋深、土壤含水率、土壤颗粒密度、土壤容重等土壤及地下水理化性质参数进行敏感性分析。结果表明:调查场地地下水中苯和氯仿污染严重,地下水中苯的总致癌风险水平为9.38×10^(-6)~2.33×10^(-5);氯仿总致癌风险水平为7.38×10^(-6)~1.35×10^(-5),二者均服从对数正态分布,均超过可接受致癌风险水平1×10^(-6),未来进驻人群健康存在风险。通过敏感性分析,土壤及地下水理化性质参数的取值对地下水苯和氯仿风险评估结果具有明显的影响,其中,土壤含水率敏感度最大,其次为地下水水位埋深和土壤容重,且三者与风险评估结果均呈负相关。o understand the influence of soil and groundwater physicochemical property parameters on the uncertainty of health risk evaluation results of benzene and chloroform in groundwater,in order to provide reference for data collection and reasonable values of parameters in risk evaluation of groundwater contaminated sites in China.Taking a site in the north adjacent to a chemical relocation enterprise as an example,the total carcinogenic risk levels of benzene and chloroform in the groundwater were assessed on the basis of PRA(probabilistic risk assessment),and buried depth of the groundwater table,soil moisture,density of soil particles,soil bulk density were analyzed the sensitivity.The total carcinogenic risk level of benzene in groundwater was 9.38×10^(-6)-2.33×10^(-5);the carcinogenic risk of chloroform ranged from 7.38×10^(-6) to 1.35×10^(-5),both of them followed lognormal distribution and exceeded acceptable level of carcinogenic risk of 1×10-6.Benzene and chloroform in groundwater at the investigation site are risky to the health of future occupants.By sensitivity analysis,the values of soil and groundwater physicochemical property parameters have a significant influence on the risk assessment results of benzene and chloroform in groundwater,soil moisture(ρws)was the most sensitive parameter,followed by the buried depth of the groundwater table(Lgw)and soil bulk density(ρb),and all of them were negatively correlated with the risk assessment results.

关 键 词：地下水污染 概率风险评价 不确定性 敏感性分析 蒙特卡洛法 

分 类 号：X523[环境科学与工程—环境工程]