基于SEIR模型公共卫生事件下物资分配优化研究  

Optimization of material allocation under public health events based on SEIR model

作　　者：庄媛媛 张克勇[1] ZHUANG Yuan-yuan;ZHANG Ke-yong(North University of China,School of Economics and Management,Taiyuan 030051,Shanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]中北大学经济与管理学院,山西太原030051

出　　处：《山东大学学报（理学版）》2023年第3期109-120,共12页Journal of Shandong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：山西省社科联重点课题资助项目(SSKLZDKT2020086);山西省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(201801027)。

摘　　要：通过SEIR模型对公共卫生事件爆发后应急救援物资需求进行预测,以应急物资需求缺货损失最小及物资分配总距离最短为目标构建优化模型。为确保分配的精确性,每周期对模型参数根据实时数据进行调整,并通过应急物资分配案例验证了模型的科学性与合理性。结果表明:该方法能有效解决重大公共卫生事件下动态需求下应急物资分配问题,为解决突发公共卫生事件下应急物资配置提供了新的思路。The SEIR model is used to predict the demand for emergency relief materials after the outbreak of a public health event, and the optimization model is constructed with the goal of minimizing the loss of emergency material demand and the shortest total distance of material distribution. In order to ensure the accuracy of the allocation, the model parameters are adjusted according to real-time data every cycle. The scientificity and rationality of the model are verified through the case of emergency material distribution. The results show that this method can effectively solve the problem of emergency material allocation under dynamic demand under major public health incidents, and provides a new idea for solving emergency material allocation under public health emergencies.

关 键 词：公共卫生事件 SEIR传染病模型 应急救援物资分配 动态分配 配置决策 

分 类 号：F252[经济管理—国民经济]