综合SEIR-FAHP的城市疫情防控评价  

Evaluation of Urban Epidemic Prevention and Control Based on SEIR-FAHP

作　　者：李寻昌[1] 王雅倩 许锐[1] 隋国晨 杨威[1] LI Xunchang;WANG Yaqian;XU Rui;SUI Guochen;YANG Wei(College of Geological Engineering and Geomatics,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《甘肃科学学报》2023年第2期115-123,共9页Journal of Gansu Sciences

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基础研究计划资助项目(2022JM-280);长安大学国际教育教学改革项目(300108211054)。

摘　　要：新型冠状病毒感染疫情防控已成为各国各级政府重要任务之一,为掌握疫情对城市公共卫生系统的影响程度,对疫情发展变化趋势进行预测并评判防控措施实施效果。以政府公开数据为信息源,建立评价对象城市的SEIR传染动力学模型,通过模型参数的灵敏度分析,以累计感染者人数为标准,确定模型各参数的重要程度序列,进而综合模糊层次分析法进行评价,最终建立综合SEIR-FAHP的城市疫情防控系统评价模型。然后以2019年武汉市疫情为实例,应用该模型对武汉市疫情防控系统进行评价。将疫情发展划分为疫情早期、中期和后期3个阶段,应用该评价模型进行评价,得到结果R_(1)·V_(1)=[0.0253846160.0792307690.250.3946150.250769];R_(2)·V_(2)=[0.01350.04960.20130.40670.3290];R_(3)·V_(3)=[000.15870.36450.4767]。根据最大隶属度原则,武汉疫情早期、中期及后期公共卫生系统评价结果依次为“良好”、“良好”、“优秀”。研究表明该方法能够客观反映城市疫情防控系统现状,可为政府进一步制定疫情防控政策提供合理参考。The prevention and control of 2019-novel coronavirus infection has become one of the top priorities of governments at all levels.In order to understand the impact of the epidemic on urban public health system.This paper predicts the development trend of the epidemic,and judges the implementation effect of prevention and control measures.In this paper,the SEIR infection dynamics model of the evaluation target city was established with the government data as the information source.Through the sensitivity analysis of model parameters,the importance degree sequence of each model parameter was determined with the cumulative number of infected persons as the standard,and then the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was integrated for evaluation.Then,a comprehensive SEIR-FAHP urban epidemic prevention and control system evaluation model was established.Finally,taking the epidemic in Wuhan in 2020 as an example,the model was used to evaluate the epidemic prevention and control system in Wuhan.The epidemic development was divided into three stages:early stage,middle stage and late stage,and the results were evaluated by using the evaluation model.The results were R_(1)·V_(1)=[0.0253846160.0792307690.250.3946150.250769],R_(2)·V_(2)=[0.01350.04960.20130.40670.3290],R_(3)·V_(3)=[000.15870.36450.4767].According to the principle of maximum membership degree,the results of the public health system evaluation in the early,middle and late stages of the epidemic were good-good-excellent in turn.The results show that the proposed method can objectively reflect the current situation of urban epidemic prevention and control system,and provide a reasonable reference for the government to further formulate epidemic prevention and control policies.

关 键 词：公共安全 SEIR传染动力学模型 模糊层次分析法 新型冠状病毒感染 疫情防控 

分 类 号：X45[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]