白洋淀流域水环境承载力多属性决策方法优选和方案评价研究  

MULTI-ATTRIBUTE DECISION-MAKING METHOD OPTIMIZATION AND SCHEME EVALUATION OF WATER ENVIRONMENTAL CARRYING CAPACITY IN THE BAIYANGDIAN LAKE BASIN

作　　者：陈文婷 苏婧[2] 张慧慧[2] 郑明霞 席北斗 CHEN Wenting;SU Jing;ZHANG Huihui;ZHENG Mingxia;XI Beidou(School of Water Resources and Environment,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Simulation and Control of Groundwater Pollution,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China;Geological Engineering Department,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)水资源与环境学院,北京100083 [2]中国环境科学研究院国家环境保护地下水污染模拟与控制重点实验室,北京100012 [3]青海大学地质工程系,西宁810016

出　　处：《环境工程》2023年第1期120-131,共12页Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“田园综合体景观基础设施配置技术集成与示范”(2019YFD1101304);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项“大清河流域(白洋淀)水质目标综合管理示范研究”(2018ZX07111004)。

摘　　要：为有效解决白洋淀流域水环境承载力多属性复杂决策问题,提出了基于人口-经济-水生态-水资源-水污染五维复杂性质决策指标评估体系(包括28项指标),并将基于新的优势关系的理想点法(TOPSIS)、多准则妥协解排序法(VIKOR)和改进密切值法应用于白洋淀流域水环境承载力多属性决策方法和方案优选中。结果表明:1)变异系数属性赋权方法实现了白洋淀流域水环境承载力多层面和复杂因素影响作用的定量化,并且表明影响该流域水环境承载力的主要因素为地下水资源量、造纸和纸制品业比例、纺织业比例、调水入淀量等;2)3种多属性决策方法中,改进密切值法计算更简便、理论更简单,为优选决策方法,它能在处理水环境承载力管理决策问题涉及的经济、社会、环境、技术标准等多层面复杂性质的同时,更好地实现水环境承载力多属性决策方案评价和优选;3)3种方法得到的多属性决策方案优选排序结果一致性达到83.3%,均表明理想型方案(F_(12))为最优,次优方案为可持续发展型(F_(11)),最劣方案为经济低速发展型(F_(2))。结合白洋淀流域实际,可采取2030年适当降低第一、二产业规模,大力发展高端高新产业和服务业等第三产业,适度发展生态旅游,限期提升改造或关闭纺织业、造纸和纸制品业等高耗水、重污染产业,增加外调水量,将污水处理厂出水提标至地表GB 3838—2002《地表水环境质量标准》准Ⅳ类标准等较严格的水环境保护措施,以达到改善环境的目的,并为管理者制定高效决策提供基础。In order to solve the multi-attribute complex decision-making problems of water environmental carrying capacity in the Baiyangdian Lake Basin,a five-dimensional complex property decision-making index evaluation system based on population,economy,water ecology,water resources and water pollution was proposed in this study(includes 28 indicators).The ideal point method based on the new dominance relationship(TOPSIS),vlse kriterijumska optimizacija I kompromisno resenje method(VIKOR)and improved osculating value method was applied to the optimization of the multi-attribute decision-making method and scheme selection of the water environmental carrying capacity in the Baiyangdian Lake Basin.The results showed that:1)the variation coefficient attribute weighting method realized the quantification of multi-level and complex factors affecting water environmental carrying capacity,and we found that the main factors affecting the water environmental carrying capacity of the Baiyangdian Lake Basin were the amount of groundwater resources,the proportion of paper making and paper products industry,the proportion of textile industry,and the amount of water transferred into the lake.2)Among the three multi-attribute decision-making methods,the improved osculating value method was simpler in calculation and theory,so it was the optimal decision method.It could not only deal with the multifaceted complex properties such as economic,social,environmental and technical standards involved in the decision-making of water environmental carrying capacity management,but also better realize the evaluation and optimization of multi-attribute decision-making scheme of water environmental carrying capacity.3)The consistency of scheme ranking results of the three methods reached 83.3%,indicating that the optimal scheme was the ideal type scheme(F_(12)),the sub-optimal scheme was the sustainable type scheme(F_(11)),and the worst scheme was the low-speed economic development scheme(F_(2)).Considering the actual situation of the Baiyangdian Lak

关 键 词：白洋淀流域 水环境承载力 TOPSIS方法 优势关系 VIKOR法 改进密切值法 多属性决策 

分 类 号：X143[环境科学与工程—环境科学]