延迟退休对我国劳动力就业的影响  

Influence of Postponement of Retirement Age on China’s Labor Employment

作　　者：张箴薇 宋德玲[1,2] ZHANG Zhen-wei;SONG De-ling(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130117,China;Business School,Changchun Humanities and Sciences College,Changchun 130117,China)

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学经济与管理学院,吉林长春130117 [2]长春人文学院商学院,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《税务与经济》2023年第2期82-90,共9页Taxation and Economy

基　　金：吉林省哲学社会科学智库基金项目(2021 JLSKZKZB061)。

摘　　要：为分析延迟退休对我国劳动力就业的影响,运用动态面板回归模型以及中介效应模型对其进行实证检验,研究结果表明,延迟退休对整体就业率及年轻劳动力就业率的影响均为正,其中,对年轻劳动力就业的促进作用更为显著。采用中介效应模型对其传导机制进行实证检验的结果表明,延迟退休会通过影响消费以及就业密度等中介机制促使生产规模进一步扩大,增加更多的岗位需求,产生就业创造效应。因此,为优化就业结构,延迟退休的方案要在正确估计其政策效应的基础上实行,以此降低改革过程中劳动力市场的波动性,减少各类劳动力群体的福利损失。In order to analyze the effect of postponement of retirement age on China′s labor force employment,the dynamic panel regression model and mediation effect model are used to carry out empirical tests on it. The research results show that delaying retirement age has a positive impact on the overall employment rate and the employment rate of young labor force. The promotion effect on the employment of young labor force is more significant. The results of an empirical test of its transmission mechanism using the mediation effect model show that postponing the retirement age will further expand the production scale through intermediary mechanisms such as affecting consumption and employment density,increasing the demand for more jobs,and generating employment creation effects. Therefore,in order to optimize the employment structure,the plan to delay the retirement age should be implemented on the basis of correctly estimating its policy effects,so as to reduce the volatility of the labor market and the welfare loss of various labor groups during the reform process.

关 键 词：延迟退休 就业 劳动力 就业结构 

分 类 号：F249.21[经济管理—劳动经济]