“双碳”框架下集装箱海铁联运增量空间研究  

Research on Incremental Space of Container Sea-Rail Intermodal Transport under the Framework of“Emissions Peak and Carbon Neutrality”

作　　者：张翠云 金方磊 刘畅 王晨 ZHANG Cuiyun;JIN Fanglei;LIU Chang;WANG Chen(China Railway Economic and Planning Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国铁路经济规划研究院有限公司,北京100038

出　　处：《铁道经济研究》2023年第2期1-5,11,共6页Railway Economics Research

基　　金：中国铁路经济规划研究院有限公司基金课题“基于‘双碳’目标的集装箱海铁联运市场分析”(2021YJJ15)。

摘　　要：集装箱海铁联运具备运能大、运输成本低、运输安全性高和污染排放少等独特优势,是践行绿色低碳发展理念,实现我国“双碳”目标的重要抓手之一。在剖析我国沿海港口集装箱货源分布及集疏运市场空间分布特征的基础上,结合现状港口集装箱铁路、公路OD及SP问卷调查结果,构建Logit模型,并对不同铁路费用下浮场景下公铁运输市场份额进行敏感性分析,进而量化研究集装箱海铁联运可能的增量空间,最后提出集装箱海铁联运公转铁增量对“双碳”目标的货币贡献量。Container sea-rail intermodal transport has the unique advantages of large transportation capacity,low transportation cost,high transportation safety and low pollution emissions.And this mode is also one of the important starting points for practicing the concept of green and low-carbon development and achieving China's"emissions peak and carbon neutrality"goal.Based on the profound analysis of the distribution of container cargo sources and the spatial distribution characteristics of the collection and distribution market in coastal ports in China,this paper constructs a LOGIT model combining the results of the current port container railway,highway OD and SP questionnaire surveys.And this paper also analyzes the sensitivity analysis of the market share of road and railway transportation under different railway cost reduction scenarios,focuses on quantifying the possible incremental space of container sea-rail intermodal transport,and finally puts forward the monetary contribution of the increase of container sea-rail intermodal transport to the"emissions peak and carbon neutrality"goal.

关 键 词：碳达峰碳中和 海铁联运 LOGIT模型 SP调查 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F512.4[经济管理—产业经济]