成长性视角下建成环境对轨道交通站点客流影响分析  

Effects of Built Environment on Metro Ridership Considering Stage of Growth

作　　者：刘翔[1] 陈小鸿[1,2] 田茗舒 LIU Xiang;CHEN Xiao-hong;TIAN Ming-shu(Urban Mobility Institute,Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China;Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering,Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学城市交通研究院,上海201804 [2]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2023年第2期121-127,共7页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(71734004)。

摘　　要：为准确把握城市轨道交通客流生成规律,本文从客流成长性视角探究城市轨道交通站点客流与站点周边建成环境之间的交互关系。以上海市城市轨道交通为研究案例,通过人口及就业密度、土地利用、路网密度、出入口数量、介中心性等13个因子刻画建成环境,基于上海市地铁刷卡数据、人口及经济普查、兴趣点(Point of Interest,POI)、道路网络等多源异构数据,分别构建建成环境对轨道交通客流影响的普通最小二乘法(Ordinary Least Square,OLS)模型与极限梯度提升(eXtreme Gradient Boosting,XGBoost)模型进行量化实证分析。结果表明,基于机器学习算法的XGBoost模型比OLS模型具有更好的模型表现。从影响贡献度来看,轨道交通站点建成初期,地铁站点出入口数量(21.9%),常住人口密度(15.9%),路网密度(9.8%)是影响城市轨道交通站点客流的最重要建成环境因素。建成近期,商业设施用地(16.5%)、容积率(11.1%)和就业密度(8.5%)等用地类建成环境变量成为提升城市轨道交通站点客流的关键。建成远期,城市轨道交通站点客流水平取决于出入口数量(18.9%)、商业设施用地开发(16.6%)与换乘线路数量(7.7%)等用地和交通之间的结合水平。研究结果证实了轨道交通客流与站点周边建成环境之间的成长性特征关系及各阶段显著影响客流的建成环境变量,为因时制宜制定城市轨道交通站城一体化开发策略提供了参考。To more accurately grasp the generation law of metro ridership,the relationship between metro ridership and the surrounding built environment is explored from the perspective of the growth stage.Taking Shanghai Metro as the studied case,the built environment is described by 14 factors such as population and employment density,land use,road network density,the number of entrances and exits,betweenness,etc.,based on multi-source data including Shanghai smartcard data,population and economic census data,Point of Interest(POI),and road network.The Ordinary Least Square(OLS)model and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)model are used to quantify the effects of the built environment on metro ridership.The results show that the XGBoost model based on a machine learning algorithm has better model performance than the OLS model.As for the contribution of independent variables,in the early stage,the number of entrances and exits(21.9%),the density of the population(15.9%),and the density of the road network(9.8%)are the most important built environment factors affecting the metro ridership.In the short term,the built environment such as commercial land(16.5%),floor area ratio(11.1%),and job density(8.5%)have become the key to improving subway passenger flow.In the long term,metro ridership depends on the level of integration between land use and transportation,such as the number of entrances and exits(18.9%),commercial land development(16.6%),and the number of transfer lines(7.7%).The results confirm the progress characteristic relationship between metro ridership and the built environment around the station,which provides an important reference for formulating the integrated development strategy of transit-oriented development according to the time and contexts.

关 键 词：城市交通 建成环境 轨道交通客流 成长性 极限梯度提升模型 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]