中国猪肉市场供需的疫情冲击效应  

The Impact of Pig Epidemics on China's Pork Supply and Demand

作　　者：石自忠[1] 李俊茹 胡向东[1] SHI Zizhong;LI Junru;HU Xiangdong

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081 [2]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2023年第3期4-17,共14页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(编号:161005202106,161005202001-4-3);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(编号:ASTIP-IAED-2021-01)。

摘　　要：非洲猪瘟等疫情对中国生猪产业及猪肉市场带来巨大负面冲击,探究未来疫情形势变化对猪肉市场的影响具有重要现实意义。基于猪肉市场供需基础数据,通过构建局部均衡模型,预测猪肉市场未来走势,并模拟非洲猪瘟等疫情冲击变化对猪肉市场的影响。研究结果表明,(1)正常情况下,中国猪肉市场供需呈增长态势。2021年,生猪产能将恢复至正常年份水平。2025年,能繁母猪及生猪存栏量达到4649.38万头和44127.85万头,生猪出栏量增长至70143.42万头,猪肉产量基本维持在5500万吨水平,生猪出栏率和胴体重达到158.96%和78.38公斤/头;城乡居民猪肉消费总量分别达到3159.41万吨和1188.68万吨,生猪和猪肉价格维持在22.96元/公斤和31.56元/公斤水平。(2)疫情减弱利于猪肉生产和消费,能繁母猪存栏、生猪存出栏及猪肉产量增长,城乡居民家庭及户外消费增加,猪肉净进口提高,助力供需趋紧态势放缓及猪价下滑;相反,疫情增强不利于猪肉生产和消费,猪肉净进口减少,猪价上涨。本文建议进一步完善生猪产业及猪肉市场政策与制度,提升应急响应能力,保障生猪产业有序发展及猪肉市场稳定运行。Pig epidemics including African swine fever have brought a huge negative impact on China's pig industry and pork market,and it is of great practical significance to explore the impact characteristics of the epidemic trend on the pork market.Based on the basic data of the pork supply and demand,a partial equilibrium model is established,the future trend of the pork market is predicted,and the impact of the pig epidemics including African swine fever on the pork market is simulated.The research results show that:(1)Under normal circumstances,the supply and demand of China's pork market show an increasing trend.In 2021,the production capacity of pig industry will return to the normal level.In 2025,the stock of sows and pig will reach 46.49 and 441.28 million heads,and the slaughter of pig will increase to 701.43 million heads.The pork production will basically remain at 55 million tons,and the slaughter rate and carcass weight will reach 158.96%and 78.38 kg/head.Total pork consumption of urban and rural residents will reach 31.59 and 11.89 million tons respectively,and the prices of pig and pork will remain at 22.96 yuan/kg and 31.56 yuan/kg.(2)The weakening of the pig epidemics is conducive to the pork production and consumption.The stock of sow and pig,pork production,at-home and outdoor consumption of urban and rural residents,and net import will increase.The tightening trend of supply and demand will slow down,and the prices of pig and pork will fall.On the contrary,the increase in the epidemic is not conducive to pork production and consumption.Net import will decrease,and the prices of pig and pork will rise.In order to ensure orderly development of pig industry and stable supply of the pork market,it is recommended to improve the policies and systems of the pig industry and the pork market,and enhance their emergency response capabilities.

关 键 词：生猪 猪肉 供需 预测 非洲猪瘟 局部均衡模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]