绿色金融发展背景下绿色信贷激励政策效果研究——基于DSGE模型的模拟分析  

Study on the Effect of Green Credit Incentive Policy under the Background of Green Finance Development Simulation Analysis Based on the DSGE Model

作　　者：林宇星 刘遵乐[2] 吴文鑫 Lin Yuxing;Liu Zunle;Wu Wenxin(Quanzhou Central Sub-branch,the People's Bank of China;Urumqi Central Sub-branch,the People's Bank of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行泉州市中心支行 [2]中国人民银行乌鲁木齐中心支行

出　　处：《金融发展评论》2023年第1期25-41,共17页Financial Development Review

摘　　要：本文立足于中国绿色金融发展的现实背景,选取存款准备金与再贷款两项中国人民银行货币政策工具,配套设定绿色信贷激励措施,构建包含家庭部门、厂商部门、银行部门、政策执行部门等多部门的动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)。研究结果表明:第一,绿色信贷激励政策对绿色项目的正面影响较为明显,能提升经济的正外部性,维护宏观经济的平稳运行;第二,绿色信贷激励政策能有效引导资金流向绿色项目产业,对外部冲击的反应不敏感;第三,绿色信贷激励政策在推动产业结构优化升级的同时能够平抑经济波动,兼顾产业结构升级与经济稳定双目标;第四,在模型设定的背景下,各项绿色信贷激励政策的政策效果从大到小排序为:再贷款利率、存款准备金利率、降准率弹性、存款准备金率。最后,本文基于实证分析结果,就构建完善绿色信贷激励政策,提出政策建议。This paper is based on the realistic background of green financial development in China, select two monetary policy tools of the People’s Bank of China: deposit reserve and refinancing, supporting set green credit incentives, build including family departments, manufacturers, banking departments, policy enforcement departments and other departments of dynamic random general equilibrium model(DSGE). The study results show that: first, The positive impact of green credit incentive policy on green projects is more obvious, To improve the positive externalities of the economy, Maintain the smooth operation of the macro economy;second, Green credit incentive policies can effectively guide funds to flow to the green project industry, Insensitive to responses to external shocks;third, Green credit incentive policies can promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure while suppressing economic fluctuations, Taking into account the double goals of industrial structure upgrading and economic stability;fourth, In the context of the model setting, The policy effect of various green credit incentive policies ranks from large to small as follows: reloan interest rate, deposit reserve interest rate, reserve requirement ratio elasticity, and deposit reserve ratio. Finally, based on the empirical analysis results, this paper puts forward policy suggestions on constructing and improving the green credit incentive policy.

关 键 词：绿色金融 绿色信贷 激励政策 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F832.4[经济管理—金融学]