战时装备损坏程度分布预计方法研究  

Research on a Prediction Method of Equipment Damage Degree Distribution in Wartime

作　　者：李明雨 高鲁 刘彬 李凯 LI Mingyu;GAO Lu;LIU Bin;LI Kai(Department of Equipment Command and Management,Shijiazhuang Campus of Army Engineering University,Shijiazhuang 050005,Hebei,China;Department of Military and Political Training,Shijiazhuang Campus of Army Infantry Academy,Shijiazhuang 050227,Hebei,China)

机构地区：[1]陆军工程大学石家庄校区装备指挥与管理系,河北石家庄050005 [2]陆军步兵学院石家庄校区军政训练系,河北石家庄050227

出　　处：《火炮发射与控制学报》2023年第2期58-64,共7页Journal of Gun Launch & Control

摘　　要：装备损坏量和损坏程度分布是战时装备损坏测算的核心内容,只有同时获得才能为战时装备维修保障筹划与实施提供依据。针对战时装备损坏程度分布预测问题,从装备损坏程度分布的相关概念出发,基于战术对抗、面向维修保障两个维度分析了装备损坏程度分布的影响因素,进而从面向维修保障的各影响因素考虑,运用D-S证据理论将相关领域专家作出的损坏程度分布预测结果融合,最终按各因素影响权重综合求得各损坏程度比例,一定程度上提高了装备损坏程度分布的科学性和可信度,为装备维修保障任务分工和维修资源的配置优化提供量化的理论支撑。The distribution of equipment damage quantity and damage degree is the core content of wartime equipment damage calculation.Only when it is obtained at the same time can it provide a basis for the planning and implementation of wartime equipment maintenance support.Aiming at the problem of predicting the distribution of equipment damage degree in wartime and starting from the relevant concepts of equipment damage degree distribution,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of equipment damage degree distribution based on tactical confrontation and maintenance support.It then considers the influencing factors of maintenance support,and uses the D-S evidence theory to integrate the prediction results of damage degree distribution made by experts in relevant fields.Finally,the proportion of each damage degree is obtained according to the influence weight of each factor,which makes equipment damage degree distribution more scientific and reliable.The research serves as a quantified theoretical basis for the designation of equipment maintenance tasks and optimized allocation of maintenance resources.

关 键 词：战时 装备损坏程度 影响因素 比例 D-S证据理论 融合 

分 类 号：TJ07[兵器科学与技术—兵器发射理论与技术]