基于多因子的中高纬度干旱区长期径流预报研究  

Long-Term Runoff Forecasting Based on Multiple Factors in Middle and High Latitude Arid Areas

作　　者：陈晓婷 张双虎[1] 王丹 王星博[1] CHEN Xiaoting;ZHANG Shuanghu;WANG Dan;WANG Xingbo(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]大连理工大学,辽宁大连116081

出　　处：《水文》2023年第2期13-17,51,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52009140)。

摘　　要：以额尔齐斯河(以下简称“额河”)流域为例,开展了基于多气候因子的中高纬度地区径流预报的研究。额河流域深居内陆,准确筛选出主要影响因子是开展该流域中长期径流预报的关键。根据额河流域地理位置特点,确定北半球500 hPa高度场、ENSO、结冰期北极海冰面积三类气候因子作为影响流域降水的主要因素。通过典型相关分析(Canonical Correlation Analysis)方法对影响因子与额河年径流量总体相关性进行分析,并在此基础上建立了年径流量预报的典型回归方程。研究结果表明,基于多因子情景下的额河年径流量与气候因子整体相关性高,径流预报结果在满足同号率要求的同时,也符合精度要求,可作为该河流中长期径流预报模型。研究结果对额河流域开展生态调度实践提供支撑,也对中高纬度干旱区域径流预报具有参考意义。Taking the Irtysh River basin as an example,the research on runoff forecast in middle and high latitudes based on multiple climate factors was carried out.The Irtysh River Basin is deep in the inland,which is the key to accurately screen out the main influencing factors to carry out the medium and long term runoff forecast.According to the characteristics of the geo⁃graphical position of Irtysh River basin,the 500 hPa height field in the northern hemisphere,ENSO events and the arctic sea ice area during ice period are the main factors influencing the river runoff.By means of Canonical Correlation Analysis,general correlation between annual runoff of Irtysh River and influencing factors was analyzed,and typical regression equations for predict⁃ing annual runoff was established.The results show that there is a high correlation between annual runoff and climatic factors in the multi-factor scenario.The result meets the requirements of the anomaly sign agreement rate and the forecast accuracy,which could be used as a medium and long-term runoff forecast model for the Irtysh River.The results could provide a reliable support for water resources scheduling practice in the Irtysh River basin,and also has reference significance for runoff prediction in mid⁃dle and upper latitudes arid region.

关 键 词：中长期径流预报 CCA方法 500 hPa高度场 NINO指数 北极海冰 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]