Remaining useful life prediction of aero-engines based on random-coefficient regression model considering random failure threshold  

作　　者：WANG Fengfei TANG Shengjin LI Liang SUN Xiaoyan YU Chuanqiang SI Xiaosheng 

机构地区：[1]College of Missile Engineering,Rocket Force University of Engineering,Xi’an 710025,China

出　　处：《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》2023年第2期530-542,共13页系统工程与电子技术（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61703410,61873175,62073336,61873273,61773386,61922-089);the Basic Research Plan of Shaanxi Natural Science Foundation of China(2022JM-376).

摘　　要：Remaining useful life(RUL)prediction is one of the most crucial components in prognostics and health management(PHM)of aero-engines.This paper proposes an RUL prediction method of aero-engines considering the randomness of failure threshold.Firstly,a random-coefficient regression(RCR)model is used to model the degradation process of aeroengines.Then,the RUL distribution based on fixed failure threshold is derived.The prior parameters of the degradation model are calculated by a two-step maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)method and the random coefficient is updated in real time under the Bayesian framework.The failure threshold in this paper is defined by the actual degradation process of aeroengines.After that,a expectation maximization(EM)algorithm is proposed to estimate the underlying failure threshold of aeroengines.In addition,the conditional probability is used to satisfy the limitation of failure threshold.Then,based on above results,an analytical expression of RUL distribution of aero-engines based on the RCR model considering random failure threshold(RFT)is derived in a closed-form.Finally,a case study of turbofan engine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the RUL prediction method and the parameters estimation method of failure threshold proposed.

关 键 词：AERO-ENGINE remaining useful life(RUL) random failure threshold(RFT) random-coefficient regression(RCR) parameters estimation 

分 类 号：V263.5[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航制造工程]