山西北部极端气候事件与农业气象灾害分析  

Analysis of Extreme Climate Events and Agrometeorological Disasters in Northern Shanxi Province

作　　者：蔡霞[1] 蔡琳[2] 李亚军[3] 王咏梅 栾青[5] CAI Xia;CAI Lin;LI Ya-jun;WANG Yong-mei;LUAN Qing(Shuozhou Meteorological Bureau,Shuozhou 036002,China;Heze University,Heze 274000,China;Shanxi Meteorological Information Center,Taiyuan 030006,China;Yuncheng Meteorological Bureau,Yuncheng 044000,China;Shanxi Climate Center,Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省朔州市气象局,山西朔州036002 [2]山东省菏泽学院,山东菏泽274000 [3]山西省气象信息中心,山西太原030006 [4]山西省运城市气象局,山西运城044000 [5]山西省气候中心,山西太原030006

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2023年第2期121-127,134,共8页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：山西省气象局课题(SXKMSQH20236329);山西省重点研发计划项目(201803D31219)。

摘　　要：根据山西北部28个国家气象站1972─2020年逐日最高气温、最低气温及降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall突变检验和t检验等方法,研究了山西北部极端气候事件的时空变化,并统计了1983─2020年该区域农业气象灾害发生的站次。结果表明:49 a来山西北部极端高温日数的倾向率为4.5 d/10 a,极端低温日数的倾向率为-5.7 d/10 a,从20世纪90年代开始极端低温日数的下降趋势比极端高温日数的上升趋势更明显;极端高温日数在1993年发生了突变,极端低温日数在1999和2000年发生了突变;49 a来山西北部极端降水日数和暴雨日数均呈小幅上升趋势;极端降水日数的突变年份为1981年,暴雨日数的突变年份为1979和1997年;在空间分布上,山西北部28个气象站极端高温日数的倾向率都在3 d/10 a以上,大部分站点的信度检验达到了0.001水平;山西北部大部分站点极端低温日数的线性趋势达到了α=0.001的信度检验;极端降水阈值和暴雨日数的空间分布均表现为西部大东部小、南部大北部小、山区大盆地小的特征;山西省北部地区由暴雨洪涝和低温冷害灾害导致的受灾站次均在2010年之后明显增加;从地域分布来看,暴雨洪涝灾害在20世纪80年代至90年代中期大同市受灾站次最多,21世纪10年代以后忻州市受灾站次明显多于大同市;低温冷害灾害大同市受灾站次最多,忻州市次之;在3个地级市中,朔州市2种灾害的受灾站次均最少。According to the daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation data of 28 national meteorological stations in northern Shanxi Province from 1972 to 2020,linear propensity estimation,Mann-Kendall and t-test methods were used to study the spatial and temporal variation of extreme climate events in northern Shanxi.The station times of agrometeorological disasters from 1983 to 2020 were also counted.The results showed that in the past 49 years,the increasing trend of extreme high temperature days was 4.5 d/10 a,and the decreasing trend of extreme low temperature days was-5.7 d/10 a in northern Shanxi.The decreasing trend of extreme low temperature days was more significant than the increasing trend of extreme high temperature days since the 1990s.The number of extreme high temperature days mutated in 1993,and extreme low temperature days mutated in 1999 and 2000.In the past 49 years,the number of extreme precipitation days and rainstorm days in northern Shanxi increased slightly.The abrupt change of extreme precipitation days was in 1981,and the abrupt change of rainstorm days was in 1979 and 1997.In terms of spatial distribution,the increasing trend of extreme high temperature days in 28 stations in northern Shanxi was above 3 d/10 a,and the reliability test of most stations reached 0.001.The reliability of extreme cold days reached 0.001 at most sites.The spatial distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation threshold and rainstorm are similar,showing that the western region is larger than the eastern region,the southern region is larger than the northern region,and the mountain is larger than the basin.The number of rainstorm,flood and low temperature cold disaster stations increased significantly after 2010.From the perspective of geographical distribution,the number of rainstorm and flood disasters was the most in Datong City from the 1980s to the mid 1990s,and the number of rainstorm and flood disasters in Xinzhou City was significantly higher than that in Datong City after 2010s.The most low

关 键 词：山西北部 极端气候事件 时空分布 突变 农业气象灾害 

分 类 号：S422[农业科学—植物保护]