基于年龄—时期—队列模型的中国甲状腺癌发病死亡趋势分析  

Trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in China based on age-period-cohort model

作　　者：仇化微 梁天孚[1] 黄苗苗 蔡会龙[3] 孙惠昕[3] QIU Hua-wei;LIANG Tian-fu;HUANG Miao-miao;CAI Hui-long;SUN Hui-xin(Department of Clinical Laboratory,Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital,Harbin 150081,China;Department of Clinical Laboratory,Daoli District People’s Hospital;Institute of Cancer Prevention and Treatment,Harbin Medical University)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨医科大学附属肿瘤医院检验科,哈尔滨150081 [2]道里区人民医院检验科 [3]哈尔滨医科大学肿瘤防治研究所

出　　处：《环境卫生学杂志》2023年第4期270-274,共5页JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE

摘　　要：目的1990—2019年中国甲状腺癌发病死亡情况及长期变化趋势。方法利用全球疾病负担(Global Burden of Disease,GBD)数据库,分析1990—2019年中国甲状腺癌发病和死亡情况,应用Joinpoint软件分析标化发病率和标化死亡率的时间变化趋势,计算年度变化百分比和平均年度变化百分比。构建年龄—时期—队列模型,分析年龄、时期和出生队列对甲状腺癌发病及死亡趋势变化的影响。结果2019年甲状腺癌发病率、标化发病率分别为2.75/10万和2.05/10万,2019年甲状腺癌死亡率、标化死亡率分别为0.51/10万和0.39/10万。1990—2019年中国甲状腺癌标化发病率有升高趋势,平均年度变化百分比为2.5%(P<0.05),标化死亡率有降低趋势,平均年度变化百分比为-0.3%(P<0.05)。年龄—时期—队列模型结果显示,发病与死亡风险随年龄的增加而增高,发病的风险随时期的增加而升高,死亡的风险随时期的增加而降低。队列效应亦表现不同,出生越晚的人群发病风险高,死亡风险低。结论1990—2019年中国甲状腺癌标化发病率呈上升趋势,发病和死亡风险随年龄升高而升高,并且较近年代出生人群发病风险升高,提示近年代出生的人群应作为甲状腺癌防治工作的重点人群。Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and their long-term changes in China from 1990 to 2019.Methods The incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer were analyzed based on the global burden of disease(GBD)database in China from 1990 to 2019.The temporal trends of age-standardized incidence and age-standardized mortality were analyzed by Joinpoint software,and the annual percentage change and average annual percentage change were calculated.An age-period-cohort model was constructed to analyze the effects of age,period,and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer.Results The incidence and age-standardized incidence of thyroid cancer in 2019 were 2.75/100000 and 2.05/100000,respectively.The mortality and age-standardized mortality of thyroid cancer in 2019 were 0.51/100000 and 0.39/100000,respectively.From 1990 to 2019,the age-standardized incidence of thyroid cancer in China increased,with an average annual percentage change of 2.5%(P<0.05),and the age-standardized mortality decreased with an average annual percentage change of-0.3%(P<0.05).The age-period-cohort model showed that the risks of incidence and mortality increased with age,the risk of incidence increased with period,and the risk of mortality decreased with period.The cohort effect was also different,the later the people birth,the higher the incidence risk of thyroid cancer,and the lower the mortality risk of thyroid cancer.Conclusion From 1990 to 2019,the age-standardized incidence of thyroid cancer in China showed an upward trend.The risks of incidence and mortality increased with age,and the incidence risk increased among people born in recent years,suggesting that people born in recent years should be the key population in the prevention and treatment of thyroid cancer.

关 键 词：甲状腺癌 趋势分析 发病率 死亡率 年龄—时期—队列模型 

分 类 号：R736.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]