2016—2020年南昌市大气PM_(2.5)短期暴露对人群循环系统疾病超额死亡的风险评估  

Risk assessment of circulatory disease excess mortality due to short-term atmospheric PM_(2.5) exposure in Nanchang,China,2016—2020

作　　者：江文斌 鲁柯柯 何加芬[1] 付俊杰[1] 武昊 何文鑫 卢飞豹[1] 宋孝光[1] JIANG Wen-bin;LU Ke-ke;HE Jia-fen;FU Jun-jie;WU Hao;HE Wen-xin;LU Fei-bao;SONG Xiao-guang(Institute of Environmental Health,Jiang xi Province Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Nanchang 330029,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省疾病预防控制中心环境所,南昌330029

出　　处：《环境卫生学杂志》2023年第4期280-285,共6页JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE

基　　金：江西省卫生健康委科技计划项目(202211290)。

摘　　要：目的评估南昌市大气PM_(2.5)短期暴露所致人群循环系统疾病超额死亡的风险。方法收集2016—2020年南昌市大气污染物、气象及死因监测资料,采用Poisson分布的广义相加模型分析PM_(2.5)短期暴露对人群循环系统超额死亡的影响。结果2016—2020年,南昌市PM_(2.5)年均浓度为37.68μg/m^(3),循环系统疾病总死亡50664人。PM_(2.5)短期暴露所致全人群循环系统疾病超额死亡707人,占循环系统疾病死亡人数的1.40%,PM_(2.5)每升高10μg/m^(3),男性、女性和≥64岁人群超额死亡危险度分别升高1.11%(95%CI:0.30%,1.92%)、1.64%(95%CI:0.79%,2.49%)和1.36%(95%CI:0.66%,2.07%)。结论南昌市大气PM_(2.5)浓度升高会增加男性、女性和65岁及以上人群循环系统疾病的超额死亡风险。Objective To investigate the risk of circulatory disease excess mortality due to short-term atmospheric PM_(2.5) exposure in Nanchang,China,from 2016 to 2020.Methods The data of air pollutants,meteorological factors and cause-of-death in Nanchang from 2016 to 2020 were collected.The generalized additive model of Poisson distribution was performed to analyze the influence of PM_(2.5) on excess mortality due to circulatory diseases.Results During 2016—2020,the mean annual mass concentration of PM_(2.5) in Nanchang was 37.68μg/m^(3),and there were 50664 deaths in total due to circulatory diseases.There were 707 circulatory disease excess deaths caused by short-term PM_(2.5) pollution in the whole population,accounting for 1.40%of total circulatory disease deaths,and for every 10μg/m^(3) increase of PM_(2.5) mass concentration,the risk of excess mortality for those of male,female and aged≥65 years was increased by 1.31%[95%confidence interval(CI):0.64%,1.99%],1.11%(95%CI:0.30%,1.92%),1.64%(95%CI:0.79%,2.49%),and 1.36%(95%CI:0.66%,2.07%),respectively.Conclusion The increase of mass concentration of PM_(2.5) in Nanchang may increase the risk of circulatory disease mortality in the population of male,female and aged≥65 years,leading to the circulatory diseases excess deaths due to PM_(2.5) pollution.

关 键 词：细颗粒物(PM_(2.5)) 循环系统疾病 时间序列分析 超额死亡 风险评估 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]