人口快速老龄化对中国教育供求关系和教育发展的影响  

The Impact of Population Ageing on the Educational Supply-Demand Relationship and Educational Development in China

作　　者：牛建林[1] Niu Jianlin

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,北京100006

出　　处：《清华大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第2期198-212,232,共16页Journal of Tsinghua University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“当代中国家庭转变对人力资本发展的影响研究”(18BRK035);国家社会科学基金重大项目“人口统计调查的国际前沿理论及其在中国的应用”(16ZDA090)。

摘　　要：教育扩张是现代国家应对人口老龄化带来的劳动供给和经济增长冲击的重要政策思路,然而在人口快速老龄化的形势下,教育扩张的政策空间和实施效果必然受到人口结构变化的影响。1990年以来,中国人口少子老龄化进程加速了教育供求矛盾的转变。一方面,少子老龄化进程直接导致全国各级学龄人口规模在过去30年间下降三到五成;另一方面,快速的人口老龄化进程导致劳动供给结构性短缺,进而对学龄人口的教育活动产生挤出效应。在这一背景下,大规模的高等教育扩张加剧了教育资本市场回报率的扁平化趋势,导致有效教育需求进一步受到抑制。近年来,全国每年有数百万新增劳动力在高中及以下阶段结束教育、进入劳动力市场。这些现状表明,有效需求不足已成为当前制约我国教育资本高效积累的关键“短板”。提高教育资本积累的效率和质量,需要阻断新增人口中低教育资本的生产和再生产机制,从巩固和培育有效教育需求、提升教育质量和吸引力等方面着力,切实推动各级教育有序、高质量和充分发展。Education expansion plays a significant role in counteracting the challenges of declining labor supply and economic growth in ageing societies. Yet, the policy effectiveness is subject to the changing population structure in a rapidly ageing society. China’s rapid population ageing has accelerated the transformation of educational supply-demand relationship since 1990. On the one hand, the ageing of population at the bottom has made the school-age population drop by 30 to 50 percent over the past 30 years. On the other, millions of school-age youths entered labor market in response to the structural labor shortage resulted from the rapid ageing of population. Meanwhile, the massive expansion of higher education provokes a decline of educational return, which further contributes to the contraction of effective educational demand. Therefore,to improve the efficiency of education expansion in China, it is imperative to elicit effective educational demand by means of preventing the reproduction of low-educated teenage workers, improving education quality, and reinforcing the prestige of higher education.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 教育供给 有效教育需求 教育资本积累 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] G521[文化科学—教育学]