初态优化估计对临近空间数值预报精度的影响研究  

Research on the imprints of optimized initial states on the forecasting accuracy of near space

作　　者：任德馨 雷久侯[1] 陈雪涛 刘宇 崔飞 张媛文 Ren Dexin;Lei Jiuhou;Chen Xuetao;Liu Yu;Cui Fei;Zhang Yuanwen(School of Earth and Space Sciences,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China;Innovation&Research Institute of HIWING Technology Academy,Beijing 100074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学地球和空间科学学院,合肥230026 [2]中国航天科工飞航技术研究院创新研究院,北京100074

出　　处：《空天技术》2023年第1期13-18,共6页Aerospace Technology

摘　　要：随着空天科技的发展,临近空间环境数值预报需求迅速增长。临近空间环境数值预报通常采用特定数据同化方法,通过融合多源观测资料,优化对临近空间环境准实时状态的估计。通过结合优化估计的初态与理论模式推演,实现临近空间环境数值预报。然而,由于现有理论模式存在缺陷,预报误差随时间延长而快速增长,理论模式对临近空间环境的预报能力亟待提升。本研究主要关注初态优化估计对临近空间环境数值预报精度的影响。分析结果表明,为提升临近空间多天预报精度,太阳辐射加热与重力波曳力等外部驱动过程需尽可能准确估计。此外,针对重点区域的临近空间数值预报,同样需要对全球范围的临近空间大气要素进行优化估计。The accurate forecasting of near space is urgently required due to the fast growth of space technology. Data assimilation is always applied to estimate the near real-time states of the near space accurately by assimilating multiple sources observations. The near space is then forecasted by applying the theoretical model and the optimized initial state. However, owing to the imperfections in the theoretical model,the forecasting error of the near space will grow with forecasting time quickly. The capability of the theoretical model in forecasting the near-space need to be improved urgently. In this study, the contributions of optimized initial states of near space to the forecasting accuracy of the theoretical model are summarized. The simulation results suggest that the external driving forces, such as solar flux heating and gravity wave drag, should be estimated carefully in the model, in order to improve the accuracy of the multiple-day forecasting. In addition,the states of the near-space should be optimized on a global scale, though a regional forecasting of the near-space is required.

关 键 词：临近空间 数值预报 数据同化 理论模式 太阳活动 重力波 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]